April 8 Market Overview: Ceasefire! The US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, oil prices plummeted 8%, and Bitcoin surged to 72,700, hitting a three-week high.

40 days of fear is being replaced by a fragile hope.

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

40 days of war brings a turning point

From “Tonight, an entire civilization will die” to “I agree to pause the bombing,” Trump took less than 12 hours.

On Tuesday evening, with about 90 minutes left before the 8:00 p.m. ultimatum, Trump announced on Truth Social that, based on requests from Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sheerif and the Army Chief of Staff Munir, he agreed to pause airstrikes against Iran for two weeks, on the condition that Iran “fully, immediately, and safely open the Strait of Hormuz.”

Iran’s foreign minister Alaraqzi subsequently confirmed acceptance, saying it would allow maritime traffic to safely transit for two weeks under coordination by Iran’s armed forces. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council also issued a statement confirming the ceasefire, but added a cold afterthought: “This does not mean the end of the war. Our hand is still on the trigger, and even the smallest mistake by the enemy will be met with full force.”

Israel agreed to join the ceasefire. Pakistan invited both delegations to Islamabad for talks by Friday. Vice President Vance may lead the U.S. delegation. Trump revealed that Iran put forward a 10-point plan, which he called a “workable basis for negotiations.”

This war, which began on February 28, reached its first truly meaningful ceasefire window on day 40.

But the fragility of the ceasefire cannot be ignored. Minutes after the ceasefire took effect, Iran still fired missiles at Israel and Gulf countries. In the early hours of Wednesday, Israel and the UAE sounded air-raid alerts. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has held all decision-making authority throughout the war. Whether front-line commanders will follow the political leadership’s ceasefire commitments remains a huge question mark.

U.S. stocks: From “civilization-ending” to five straight green days, and the after-hours surge goes wild

Tuesday’s U.S. stock market moves can be summed up in one sentence: dancing at the gates of hell.

Trump’s “civilization-ending” remarks on Tuesday morning directly sent the three major indexes plunging into a deep hole. The Dow fell more than 1% during the day, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were approaching 1% declines. By midday, U.S. military airstrikes hit Hagg Island (50+ military targets, deliberately avoiding oil facilities), with WTI surging to $115.8—its highest level since 2008—while panic intensified.

In the final 30 minutes, news of Pakistan’s delayed proposal triggered short-covering. The S&P 500 snapped back from -0.3% intraday to finish up 0.08% at 6,616.85 points, achieving five straight green days. The Nasdaq rose 0.10% to 22,017.85. The Dow failed to turn positive, down 85 points (-0.18%) to 46,584.46. The VIX spiked 11.5% to 26.95.

At the sector level, the market was extremely split. Apple plunged 4% (folded iPhone engineering tests ran into obstacles), and Tesla fell 3%. UnitedHealth surged 8% (Medicare Advantage payments raised), Broadcom rose 4.5% (a long-term TPU deal with Alphabet), and Intel rose 3% (reportedly collaborating with xAI on chip development).

But the real action came after the close. The moment the ceasefire news broke, the futures market exploded: S&P 500 futures jumped more than 1.6%, Nasdaq-100 futures surged 1.8%, and Dow futures rose by 725 points. If this gain is realized at Wednesday’s open, the S&P 500 would directly recapture all losses since April.

Oil: From $116 to $103, $13 evaporated overnight

The ceasefire’s impact on oil prices was immediate and brutal.

By Tuesday’s close, WTI was still at $112.95 (+0.5%), having touched $115.8 intraday—the highest level since April 2008. Dated Brent spot prices jumped above $144 on the day, setting a record high.

After the ceasefire news was released, WTI plunged by about 8% to around $103. Nearly $13 per barrel disappeared overnight.

The logic chain behind the plunge is clear: ceasefire → Iran opens the strait → Hormuz shipping resumes → Middle East oil-producing countries gradually restore shut-in daily production capacity of 7.5 million barrels → the supply gap shrinks → the war premium fades.

But traders won’t ignore a few key “buts”:

Iran says safe passage will be under “coordination among armed forces,” not unconditional free transit. There’s a huge amount of operational room in between. A newly released EIA forecast warned that Middle East capacity “will not recover to near pre-conflict levels until the end of 2026.” The structural damage that the six-week war inflicted on the global refining and shipping system needs months to repair. War insurance premiums won’t drop to zero overnight.

JPMorgan previously warned that if the strait stays closed until mid-May, Brent could spike to $150. The ceasefire has temporarily pinned that tail risk down. But Goldman Sachs’ forecast for Brent’s average price in 2026 is still as high as $85—far above the $61 at the start of the year.

$103 may just be the first stop; the road to $80 won’t be completed overnight.

Gold: $4,737 close-out, with postwar logic becoming more complex

Gold prices rose 1.12% on Tuesday to $4,737 per ounce. The Hagg Island airstrike and the “civilization-ending” comments drove a renewed pull for safe-haven demand.

After the ceasefire, gold faces an equation that’s even more complicated. The theory that the war premium fading is bearish for gold would be negative in principle. But if the ceasefire drives oil prices to crash → inflation expectations cool → the market reprices a potential rate-cut path → real yields fall, then gold could actually benefit.

In the short term, odds favor first dropping and then stabilizing. In the medium term, the $4,600–$4,700 bottom has been confirmed repeatedly. What truly decides direction isn’t the ceasefire itself, but the stance of the Federal Reserve after the ceasefire. If postwar oil prices pull back and make the Fed reconsider the window for rate cuts, gold’s next target would be to return to $5,000. If inflation stickiness remains—ISM’s services prices index just surged to 70.7—rate-hike expectations will weigh on gold.

Structural central-bank buying is the floor. The dollar’s share in global reserves has fallen to the lowest level since 1994 (about 40%), while gold’s share has risen to the highest level since 1991 (about 30%). Two weeks of ceasefire won’t change this trend.

Crypto: Bitcoin spikes to $72,738 overnight—does 48 days of fear finally end?

The ceasefire has triggered the most violent rebound in the crypto market since the late-February war began.

According to Bloomberg data, Bitcoin jumped 4.9% in Asian early trading to $72,738, the highest level in three weeks since March 18. Ethereum surged 7.4% to $2,273. Crypto market shorts were wiped out of more than $200 million within 24 hours.

Looking back at Tuesday during the day, BTC fell by less than 1% to $69,065 under the “civilization-ending” rhetoric—nearly immune to geopolitical shock. The release came after the ceasefire news: the spring that had been held down for 48 days snapped free.

The rebound’s quality is far higher than the earlier short-covering. Bitcoin futures open interest rose 5% over 24 hours to $49.53 billion, a signal that new money is entering. A resistance level that had repeatedly rejected price around $71,500 was broken in one go.

A deeper narrative is forming: ceasefire continues → oil prices fall → easing of inflation pressures → the Fed reopens the rate-cut window → expectations for looser liquidity return. This logic chain is the core engine of the crypto bull market over the past 18 months. The war turned off that engine for 40 days—and now someone is turning the key.

Strategy just bought $330 million worth of BTC from April 1 to May 5, with holdings of about $58 billion. If Bitcoin holds above $72,000, Strategy could record its best single week of the year.

An extreme fear cycle lasting 48 consecutive days may finally be coming to an end.

Today’s summary: War day 40, and peace day 1?

On April 8, the Iran-U.S. war saw its most dramatic 24 hours—from “civilization-ending” to a two-week ceasefire:

U.S. stocks: The S&P closed five straight green days up 0.08% to 6,616.85. In after-hours trading, the futures surged: S&P +1.6%, Nasdaq +1.8%, Dow +725 points.

Oil: WTI plunged from $116 intraday to $103 after-hours, evaporating $13 overnight. The Strait of Hormuz will reopen under Iran-coordinated arrangements.

Gold: Closed up 1.12% to $4,737. Postwar short-term pressure remains, but central bank buying and rate-cut expectations provide support.

Crypto: Bitcoin surged to $72,738, a three-week high, while Ethereum jumped 7.4%. The 48-day extreme fear cycle may be ending.

Before 8:00, it was a delay—not destruction.

But a new question immediately surfaces: Is two weeks enough?

The specifics of the 10-point plan have not been made public. Iran says “our hand is still on the trigger.” Missiles were still launched after the ceasefire. Israel has expressed “doubt” about whether the ceasefire can be sustained. No one knows whether front-line commanders of the Revolutionary Guard will truly put down their weapons. The success or failure of negotiations in Islamabad will be decided in the next two weeks—either this is the start of durable peace, or just a breather before the next round of escalation.

But at least tonight, global markets cast their own votes: S&P futures up 1.6%, oil down 8%, and Bitcoin up 5%.

40 days of fear is being replaced by a fragile hope.