A-shares and Hong Kong stocks surge! Big news from the Strait of Hormuz!

Global markets surge!

Driven by news that the Ime-Iran ceasefire will be in place for two weeks and that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened for two weeks, global stock markets rose sharply across the board. As of the time of this report by China Merchants Securities Journal, the Nikkei 225 index was up more than 4.70%, and South Korea’s KOSPI index was up more than 5%. Nasdaq 100 index futures expanded their gains to 3%, Eurozone Stoxx 50 index futures rose by more than 5%, Germany’s DAX index futures rose by more than 4%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 index futures rose by 2.50%. International gold prices at one point rose by more than 3%, breaking through 4850 USD per ounce during the session, while silver prices at one point rose by more than 6%.

In A-shares, all three major indices opened higher together: the Shanghai Composite was up more than 1%, the Shenzhen Component was up more than 2%, and the ChiNext index was up more than 3%. Sectors including CPO, storage chips, non-ferrous metals, and semiconductors all strengthened.

In addition, gains in FTSE China A50 index futures widened to 2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 2.61% at market open, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2.95%. Popular tech stocks generally rallied, with Zhipu rising by more than 14%, SMIC rising by more than 7%, and Bilibili and JD Health rising by more than 5%, while Baidu Group rose by nearly 4%.

As for the latest developments in the Iran situation, according to reports from multiple U.S. media outlets on the evening of the 7th, a U.S. official said that under the two-week ceasefire agreement, U.S. airstrikes against Iran have already been paused. In addition, there were reports that during the ceasefire period, Iran and Oman would charge fees for ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.

New developments from the Strait of Hormuz

According to CCTV News, local time on April 7, an anonymous regional official said that the two-week ceasefire plan includes allowing Iran and Oman to charge tolls for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. He said that Iran would use the funds raised for reconstruction. It is still unclear how Oman will use the funds it raises. The official did not disclose his nationality.

In the early hours of April 8, Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi issued a statement on behalf of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, announcing that within two weeks the Strait of Hormuz will achieve safe navigation.

In the statement, Araghchi said that ships, coordinated with Iran’s armed forces, can achieve safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz within two weeks. He also said that if attacks targeting Iran stop, Iran’s armed forces will also stop “defensive military operations.” International media interpreted this as Iran agreeing to the two-week ceasefire.

However, in his statement, Araghchi did not specify the exact date for the Strait of Hormuz to resume operations or for the ceasefire to begin.

What is worth noting is that after the U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire, Israel said that Iran’s missiles struck multiple places.

According to reports from Israel in the early hours of the 8th, that day there were reports of explosive objects falling in southern Israeli areas including Beersheba. A two-story building in Beersheba was hit and damaged, and emergency medical services were heading to the scene to handle the situation.

In the early hours of the 8th, Israel’s military said it detected the latest round of Iranian missiles incoming. Air-raid sirens sounded several times across central and southern parts of Israel.

Earlier, U.S. President Trump said in a post on social media that after a phone call with Pakistan, he agreed to pause bombings and attacks against Iran for two weeks, on the condition that Iran agrees to open the Strait of Hormuz “comprehensively, immediately and safely.” On the 8th, the Secretariat of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council released a message saying that Iran will hold two-week political talks with the U.S. in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan.

In addition, The Times of Israel reported on the 8th, citing a security official, that although the U.S. and Iran have already announced a ceasefire, Israel “is still carrying out ongoing strikes on Iran.”

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the 8th Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued a statement saying that, based on the recommendation of Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and approval by the Supreme National Security Council, Iran will hold two-week negotiations with the U.S. in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, on the 10th, but the Iranian side “has complete lack of trust” in the U.S.

The statement said that Iran “has complete lack of trust” in the U.S., and it will set aside two weeks for negotiations. With both sides’ agreement, the negotiation time could be extended. During this period, Iran must maintain national unity, which is a continuation of the struggle on the battlefield.

The statement also said that the negotiations do not mean the end of hostilities. Only by following the 10 ceasefire provisions—turning the “surrender of the enemy” on the battlefield into a “decisive political achievement” in the negotiations, and finalizing the details through negotiations—will Iran accept ending the hostilities.

Gold prices surge sharply

After the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, gold prices surged sharply. International gold prices at one point rose by more than 3%, and silver prices at one point rose by more than 6%. As of the time of this report, spot gold was up 2.50% to 4819 USD per ounce, and spot silver was up 4.87% to 76.50 USD per ounce.

International oil prices, meanwhile, plunged to below 100 USD per barrel, and the dollar also weakened, which supported gold priced in U.S. dollars. As of the time of this report, Bloomberg’s U.S. Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8%, which measures the dollar exchange rate.

Since the outbreak of the Middle East war, gold’s price trend has generally moved in sync with stocks. Its traditional safe-haven appeal has been weakened, as some investors need to make up for losses in other parts of their portfolios.

“Gold breaking above 4800 USD per ounce reflects a recalibration of risk, not a complete shift in the underlying mechanism,” said Aseiri, a strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. The rally indicates that the market is currently digesting expectations that the likelihood of long-term disruption may be lower, but compared with before the Iran situation, gold prices still have a significant discount.

Bloomberg noted that the conflict has now entered its sixth week, driving up energy prices and heightening inflation risks, making it more likely that central banks will delay rate cuts and even consider rate hikes. Bond traders expect the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing costs stable for the rest of this year, which would be a headwind for non-yielding gold.

Since the war began in late February, gold has fallen by nearly 10%. The recent modest rebound has benefited from hopes for a ceasefire, and from expectations that slower global economic growth will offset bets that borrowing costs will remain stable or rise.

On Tuesday, before the ceasefire was announced, three Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about inflation and a slowdown in growth. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said interest rates are roughly in a range that neither stimulates nor suppresses the economy, while New York Fed President John Williams said his outlook for potential price pressure in the U.S. has essentially not changed.

Aseiri said, “In the short term, gold remains highly sensitive to political developments. The current ceasefire provides a window to catch one’s breath, but it is conditional and fragile. Any signs of a rupture—especially developments around the Strait of Hormuz—could bring volatility and downside risks back into play.”

（Source: China Merchants Securities Journal）