Refined oil price adjustment window is approaching; filling up a tank may cost about 6.7 yuan more.

China Economic Net (April 6) (Chen Junming) The next round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will open at 24:00 on April 7. Analysts predict that oil prices will most likely be raised in this round.

On the day of the previous adjustment (March 23), the National Development and Reform Commission said that since March 9, when domestic refined oil prices were last adjusted, international crude oil prices have surged significantly due to the intensification of conflicts involving the US, Israel, and Iran. In particular, crude oil prices in the Middle East have repeatedly hit record highs. To mitigate the impact of the abnormal rise in international oil prices, lessen the burden on downstream users, and ensure steady economic operations and improvements in people’s livelihoods, on the basis of maintaining the existing pricing mechanism framework, China implemented temporary control measures on domestic refined oil prices. After the control measures, for private car owners—based on a 50 to 60 liter fuel tank—filling up with 92-octane gasoline would reduce spending by 40 to 50 yuan.

A report by Longzhong Information shows that during this adjustment cycle, international crude oil prices have continued their upward trend, and refined oil prices corresponding to them are also expected to rise. As of April 2, the average reference crude oil price during the cycle was 109.06 USD per barrel, up 2.24% from the previous cycle. When the adjustment window opens, the theoretical increase in corresponding refined oil prices is expected to be around 130 yuan per ton, meaning this round of adjustments will most likely be an upward one.

Golden Union (Jinlianchuang) says that recently, crude oil overall has shown a pattern of rallying and then pulling back, with the weekly average price increasing quarter over quarter. Although the high oil price has already started to curb some petroleum consumption, overall demand still shows strong resilience. It is expected that global crude oil demand will gradually rise to about 106 million barrels per day and remain at a high level. Because the decline in demand is limited, it is difficult to fully offset the disruption caused by supply contraction, so the overall market remains in a tight balance—or even a shortage—state.

Longzhong Information predicts that according to China’s domestic refined oil pricing adjustment mechanism, on April 8 the corresponding refined oil price increase will be around 130 yuan per ton, marking the sixth rise this year. If prices are raised this time, using a 70-liter fuel tank as an example, private car owners will spend about 6.7 yuan more to fill a tank.

China Economic Net noticed that since the beginning of this year, domestic oil prices have gone through six rounds of adjustments, specifically “five increases and one pause.” Compared with the end of last year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 2,320 yuan per ton and 2,235 yuan per ton, respectively. If this round of adjustment is an upward one as expected, the 2026 pricing adjustment pattern will change to “six increases and one pause.”

Under the “ten working days” principle, the next retail refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on April 21, 2026.

Looking ahead, a Longzhong Information research report shows that the US has stated it will not get entangled in Iran for too long. The intensity of the conflict is expected to decline, and the issue of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is also being discussed among multiple countries. Combined with the high volatility of international oil prices recently, the probability of a decrease in the next refined oil price adjustment is expected to be higher.

Jinlianchuang believes that regarding the ceasefire, the various diplomatic signals released by the US and Iran are ambiguous, so uncertainty in Middle East geopolitical conditions and shipping still remains. If the US ends the war with Iran within a short period of time, oil prices would accelerate downward; otherwise, they would continue to rise.

A research report by Zhuochuang Information states that currently, the key disagreements between the US and Iran are hard to reconcile, with the fighting stuck in a stalemate. The navigation efficiency through the Strait of Hormuz has remained at a sustained low level, and there has been no clear signal of easing geopolitical risks. Against this backdrop, international oil prices may maintain a high level with wide-range fluctuations. It is necessary to closely watch for extreme price swings that could be triggered by an escalation of hostilities beyond expectations. Entering May to June, geopolitical events may gradually calm down; market risk-avoidance sentiment is expected to cool, and crude oil prices may have room to gradually fall from the high-range area. It is expected that over the next three months, the monthly average prices of US crude oil will be 94.69 USD per barrel, 86.37 USD per barrel, and 72.51 USD per barrel in sequence, showing an overall stepped downward trend. (China Economic Net APP)

(Editor: Wen Jing)

Keywords:

                                                            Oil prices