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Is today a replay of last year's GS battle?
Earlier, I said that the Science and Technology Innovation Composite Index had a complete five-wave decline at the minute level, and that it had already entered the late stage. Now looking back, no matter how the war advances or retreats, after the Science and Technology Innovation Composite Index hit its low on March 24, it has never made a new low. Instead, it has been going sideways and consolidating continuously. At the minute level, the moving averages have already started to stick together. Since there were no signs that the war was ending earlier, high-risk-tolerance funds didn’t dare to enter. The Science and Technology Innovation sector and the ChiNext board have been in weak sideways consolidation. So if today’s ceasefire can bring a gap-up open, and it can hold without falling back, then a minute-level double bottom (W bottom) might be formed. We’ll wait and see. [Taoguba]
Also regarding sector selection: now the thing to consider is, if CPI and PPI truly start to turn around, what new sectors will that create opportunities for? Currently, the chemical industry still looks like there’s very good opportunity. In addition, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will definitely lead to the global expectation of long-term higher oil prices. New energy is a long-term opportunity as well, including upstream mines, midstream materials, downstream batteries, and complete vehicles.
After high-risk-tolerance funds enter, one mainstream choice is still AI-related opportunities—combined with the soon-to-be released DS new model and OPEN AI’s new model. If its capabilities can continue to be strengthened, then AI demand will keep爆发ing, and what it brings is continued investment in computing power. I continue to look favorably on storage, optical, and PCB. Since the good model stocks have not been listed on A-shares, it’s not recommended to choose the back-end application players.
Let me talk about a question that everyone often cares about: can XXX stock be bought? My suggestion is that stock selection isn’t the most important thing. Because companies listed on A-shares are, for the most part, leaders in their respective fields. If you just do a little research into past performance and industry trends, you can judge whether it can be bought. The difficulty lies in when to buy and when to sell. That requires in-depth research into technical analysis. So whether it can be bought or not can’t be answered simply. If you have time, I still recommend reading more books related to technical analysis—at least to understand some basic technical indicators, typical technical patterns, and so on.
Finally, if today sees a big rise with high volume, then the profit-making effect for the whole month of April will show up. However, a gap-up followed by a pullback is a common pattern in A-shares, so still keep one degree of caution.