[Red Envelope] No matter how perfect the hindsight logic is, it can't bring profit to the account.

Today, the emergency ceasefire agreement has been put into effect. Yesterday, we also just talked about the two contestants on the ring—both of them actually didn’t want to fight; they both wanted to find an excuse to step down. Meanwhile, we spectators watching from the sidelines still always feel a bit unsatisfying.

Before the ceasefire, the market was full of talk that if geopolitical tensions eased, safe-haven assets—especially precious metals—would ebb. Many people thought gold and silver would fall. The result was that precious metals surged hard instead, slapping a lot of people in the face.

Then today, there will probably be even more hindsight-buttressed interpretations, like inflation expectations reversing, or that geopolitical uncertainty still exists. In plain terms, it’s just shooting an arrow first and then drawing the target.

The market has already moved. Anything a “Monday morning quarterback” says will be right. But that kind of logic and conclusions that can’t be disproved have zero value for real trading—your account’s profit and loss won’t perform along with your storyline.

Real trading is about responding to the future. You can’t rely on making up logic after the fact. If your summary is even more correct, what practical meaning does it have? If today safe-haven assets like precious metals fall, then their post-hoc interpretations will simply become another opposite story.

Actually, the chart is already very clear. As we discussed many times earlier, after gold reaches a trend-making high point, it has kept moving in a higher-degree corrective wave pattern. A five-wave correction is more likely. At the same time, we can’t rule out an abc structure. In that case, guessing back and forth is meaningless. Tops and bottoms are formed, not guessed. What investors should do most is prepare for and execute sound responses.

Trading is easy to watch from the sidelines, but it’s hard to bow in and get involved. Many people are like “drunk and dancing by the pavilion with half a scroll of scripture,” talking big from a well while saying the sky is wide. Then when it comes to having little money in their pocket, they get angry and point fingers, claiming that the whole universe is wrong. Never learn to be like that.

Respect market规律, follow system rules strictly, don’t let noise distract you, and only trade where there’s a probabilistic edge—this is the right way to survive in the market.

Keep watching from the sidelines. You can watch, but you must never use the logic of watching from the sidelines to treat investing.