Just now, Trump spoke out! Israel proposes conditions for a ceasefire!

Iranian Hostilities See Latest Developments!

According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump, in an interview with Agence France-Presse, said the Iranian uranium enrichment issue would be “handled perfectly.” He also claimed that the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is a “complete and total victory” for the United States.

Meanwhile, the Israeli prime minister’s office said in a statement that Israel supports Trump’s decision to pause strikes against Iran for two weeks, on the condition that Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz and stops attacks. And the ceasefire does not include Lebanon.

So how will the situation unfold?

Trump Speaks

According to Agence France-Presse, “A complete victory. A 100% victory. No doubt about it.” Trump said in a brief phone interview shortly after announcing the ceasefire. He did not say clearly whether, if the deal falls apart, he would resume previous threats to destroy Iran’s civilian power plants and bridges. “You’ll know then,” Trump told Agence France-Presse.

But Trump said that under this agreement, Iran’s enriched uranium issue will be “perfectly resolved.” The fate of uranium is the key issue in this war, Trump said, adding that this war is aimed at ensuring that the Islamic Republic can never obtain nuclear weapons. “This will be handled properly, otherwise I won’t agree to reconciliation,” Trump said, but he did not specify how the uranium would be handled. Trump also added that he believes China helped Iran return to the negotiating table to reach a two-week ceasefire agreement.

According to a report on the 7th from the U.S. side, two U.S. officials said that before President Trump announced the ceasefire with Iran, he spoke by phone separately with the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of Pakistan’s Army, General Munir, and with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. The report did not disclose the details of the calls. It is understood that Munir is a key liaison between the United States and Iran.

According to a report by U.S. CNN local time on Tuesday (the 7th), the Trump administration is preparing for possible face-to-face meetings between U.S. and Iranian officials. U.S. officials said that both sides are currently working to reach a long-term agreement to end the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Given that both the U.S. and Iran have just announced a two-week ceasefire agreement, the likelihood of holding this meeting is becoming increasingly likely.

U.S. officials said the meeting is likely to be held in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, with Pakistani mediators present. U.S. Vice President Vance, presidential envoy Witkoff, and Trump’s son-in-law Kushner are expected to attend the talks. White House press secretary Leavitt confirmed that the U.S. and Iran are indeed currently discussing a face-to-face meeting, but she also said that nothing has been finalized before any formal announcement by the president or the White House.

At the same time, the Israeli prime minister’s office said it supports Trump’s decision to pause attacks on Iran for two weeks, provided that Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz and stops attacks.

How Will the Situation Play Out?

According to GMF Market Commentary, it appears that both sides share common ground on reopening navigation in the strait and managing the conflict.

The U.S. and Iran have settled common ground and room for negotiation in four areas: issues related to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting sanctions on Iran, broader and more progressive negotiations, and regional conflict management. In an environment lacking mutual trust, reaching a “temporary ceasefire agreement” means that the degree of consensus (or shared fears) between the two sides is greater than expected.

Judging from current statements, reopening the strait (Iran charging fees or improving its international image to ensure future negotiation benefits, and the U.S. lowering oil prices) and conflict management (Iran avoiding damage to economic facilities, and the U.S. avoiding the situation getting out of control) appear to be the common denominators.

However, the two sides differ in how they state the preconditions for the ceasefire. Iran believes (at least as publicly claimed) that the U.S. accepted the 10-point demands presented by Iran. These 10 demands are different from yesterday’s version and include: coordinating with Iran’s armed forces to control passage through the Strait of Hormuz; ending “all members of the Resistance Axis” wars against the aggression of the Israeli regime; withdrawing all U.S. combat forces from all bases and deployment points in the region; establishing a secure passage protocol in the Strait of Hormuz to ensure Iran’s dominant position; fully compensating Iran for its losses based on assessment results; lifting all Tier 1 and Tier 2 sanctions and related UN Security Council resolutions; releasing all Iranian assets and properties frozen overseas; and finally, approving all of these items in binding UN Security Council resolutions.

The U.S. (as seen through Trump’s Truth) believes that Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz, and that the 10-point demands are merely the basis for negotiations. This disagreement over the specific text is very common in tense negotiations at the final stage, and it more reflects political messaging and red-line signaling. Investors should focus on both sides’ “willingness” and “red lines,” but they should not try to read too much detail about the future agreement from this.

The firm tends to believe that Iran will ultimately obtain a decent deal because the negotiating basis is Iran’s proposed 10-point demands, not the U.S.’s proposed 15-point demands. Pakistan played an important role in this ceasefire agreement. And the last item in Iran’s 10-point agreement is a demand that “these should be approved in binding UN Security Council resolutions.” Iran is clearly hoping to secure international sympathy and support to counter-pressure the U.S., and it is expected that future nominal U.S.-Iran negotiations will include more multilateral elements. There is also no exclusion of the possibility that more countries will participate substantively.

The worst timing may already have passed.

In this conflict, both the U.S. and Iran played the “chicken” game to the very last moment. It is expected that before both sides escalate the situation, they will think twice and proceed cautiously. In the short term, actual shipping and passage conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, progress on the initiation of negotiations in Islamabad, and of course also the deployment of U.S. military forces will be the focus of market attention.

（Source: China Securities Journal）