BTC this morning experienced an upward surge due to news factors. Regarding the US-Iran issue, I think it's still a bit early to say it has been fully resolved. My impression is that it's more about delaying time rather than truly ending. We won't speculate too much on the specific reasons.

The rally from $60k in BTC is a rebound. Based on the rebound levels, two potential paths—red and blue—have been outlined for the subsequent trend.

Red Path: The rebound from $60k targets the entire decline from $126,000 to $60k. Under this path, a breakthrough above $76,000 is allowed to create a new high for the rebound. However, generally in a bear market, rebounds should not touch the low point of the previous rebound, which is $80,600. After this rebound ends, BTC will continue to decline, and within this bear cycle, there will be no rebound larger than the red box level. The next such upward move would occur during a bull market cycle. This also means that most of the time after 2026, this path indicates a period of poor performance.

Blue Path: The rebound from $60k to $76,000 targets the decline from $97,900 to $60k, and this rebound has already ended. Currently, the $76,000 level marks the start of a new downward trend, although the rebound from $65,000 was relatively strong due to news influences. If this week's weekly close is above $70,300, the probability of this trend decreases. If the trend follows this path, there will still be good trading opportunities in the first half of 2026.