SpaceX steals the spotlight! U.S. stock analysts worry that the U.S. IPO market may be dragged down as a result

Cailian Press, April 8 (Edited by Ma Lan) This year’s U.S. stock IPO market is set to welcome several heavyweight players, such as SpaceX, an aerospace company planning to go public in June, as well as the AI startups Anthropic and OpenAI, which could list in the second half of the year.

These companies’ IPOs have filled the market with anticipation, but on the other hand, their enormous valuations may drain investors’ demand for U.S. equities this year. Some analysts and industry insiders have pointed out that SpaceX could squeeze other companies and investors’ opportunities.

Renaissance Capital’s senior strategist Matt Kennedy warned that historical experience shows that major IPOs like SpaceX will pull away market popularity; the 2012 Facebook listing was just such a case. None of the companies would want SpaceX to overshadow the progress they make in their own trading, so IPO activity may slow down in the weeks before and after SpaceX’s listing.

Renaissance Capital data shows that in the U.S. market, so far this year, 35 companies have completed IPO pricing, down 37.5% from the same period last year. The situation may worsen further in the coming months, casting a shadow over hopes for an overall market rebound this year.

Market depth
The U.S. IPO market is lining up, but the U.S.-Iran conflict, elevated oil prices, concerns about private credit, and the impact of artificial intelligence on the traditional software industry make the IPO process full of uncertainty. Which deals can ultimately succeed still needs true market testing. And besides these uncertainties, large IPOs like SpaceX are also creating headwinds.

PitchBook analyst Kyle Stanford said that mega IPOs attract market attention, but they may push back the window for a full reopening of IPOs to 2027.

He also noted that if SpaceX raises $50 billion to $75 billion, and if OpenAI and Anthropic together raise $50 billion, then that would roughly be equal to the total amount of money raised over the past decade by companies that went public with support from U.S. venture capital.

Analysts believe that SpaceX’s mega IPO has never been seen before, so it is difficult to manage expectations. There’s no question that SpaceX has grown and expanded, but another issue is whether the U.S. market can absorb such a large-scale listing transaction.

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould pointed out that there’s an old saying in the market: bull markets end when the money runs out. Historically, there are many examples showing that a large number of IPOs and new stock listings, along with subsequent secondary offerings, ultimately lead to an imbalance between market supply and demand.