Breaking! The global powder keg has paused the detonation, and $BTC bears are being hunted for 350 million, but in two weeks—will it be heaven or hell?

A tweet: the taut string loosened by one notch, temporarily. About ninety minutes before the deadline, the Middle East conflict showed the clearest de-escalation signal in six weeks. Market analysis points out that this isn’t peace—it’s the market’s expectation that things “won’t get worse.”

Market reaction was textbook. WTI crude oil plunged from a $117 peak to around $96, falling more than 9% in half an hour. Risk assets rebounded on cue, with S&P 500 index futures up more than 1.6%. $BTC hit a intraday high of $72,772 within 24 hours, with a daily gain of roughly 4.47%. Data shows that in the past 24 hours, the total amount of all-market contract liquidations reached $495 million, of which shorts accounted for $346 million.

However, devils are hidden in the details. Iran’s statement leaves vague room for “technical conditions permitting,” and Israel still carried out military actions in the hours before a ceasefire. Oil prices may have slipped below the $100 psychological level, but they remain far above pre-war levels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration warned that Middle East oil production won’t get close to pre-conflict levels until the end of the year. What the market pricing reflects is only a temporary fading of tail risk.

A subtle turn is emerging in liquidity. The first spot $BTC ETF issued by a major U.S. bank began trading on the same day, and its 0.14% annual fee set a new market low. The day before, the U.S. spot $BTC ETFs saw net inflows of $471 million in a single day—the highest in more than two months. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index also rebounded from “extreme fear” a month ago to “neutral.”

Technical charts tell a split story. $BTC’s daily chart has broken above the upper Bollinger Band; the RSI rose to 59.86, entering a short-term strength range. But on the weekly chart, the price is still far below the 20-week moving average, and the RSI is only 39.70. The monthly chart is under pressure too: the price remains more than 25% away from the moving average. This multi-timeframe divergence suggests a contradiction between short-term momentum and the medium-to-long-term trend.

$ETH is relatively stronger. The monthly gain is about 7%, the daily RSI reaches 61.61, and its exchange rate versus $BTC has also recovered somewhat. But on the weekly level, $ETH faces pressure as well: the RSI is only 41.66, still more than 10% away from the weekly moving average.

On-chain data reveals a more complex game. The spot cumulative成交量差值 (cumulative trading volume difference) has turned from negative to positive, and losing sell pressure has decreased. However, the on-chain apparent demand over the past 30 days remains negative at -63,000 $BTC. More importantly, the “whale” addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 $BTC switched in the past year from net accumulation of 200k coins to net distribution of 188k coins—one of the most aggressive distribution cycles on record. Institutions may be stepping in to buy, but big holders are retreating; this structure sets the ceiling for any rebound.

The next two-week window will determine whether this is just a breather or the start of a trend reversal. The negotiation outcome this Friday, the actual progress of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and the upcoming U.S. March CPI data will all work together. If talks break down, oil prices will return above $110, inflation expectations will pick up again, and the risk of $BTC breaking below the current trading range and sliding toward $58,330 will rise sharply. Conversely, if navigation goes smoothly and oil falls back below $90, combined with the narrative from the new ETFs, $75,000 will be the first hurdle that bulls must overcome.

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