[Red Envelope] The weekend outlook indicates that the turning point from adversity to prosperity has arrived. The AI technology main theme is leading a major counterattack as expected. Practical tips included.

1: This weekend’s market forecast marked the “worst-to-best” turning point—AI big-tech led the charge with its rebound view proved correct
The long-awaited “worst-to-best” turning point is finally here, with clouds parting and the day shining through. This weekend, at the extreme low point, most people were despairing and panicking. But markets often deliver the “worst-to-best” at the coldest moment. Therefore, this weekend I am personally bullish on the market starting Tuesday’s session for the “worst-to-best” turning point, and the main line is led by big-tech from an offensive direction.

So at Tuesday’s open, within the low-position “unity of knowledge and action” mode, I found four technology core leaders to be worth looking at: Changxin Xiongchuang, Tongguan Tongbo, Demingli, and ✗✗✗✗. Meanwhile, under the “unity of knowledge and action” in the lineup of speculative capital sentiment, I also screened Shenjian. With the market having been dull and relatively shabby development-wise for a long time before, this is the first time in quite a while it has been so actively proactive. Looking back today, the forecast that Tuesday would reach the “worst-to-best” turning point this weekend—and the market-thought validation driven by big-tech’s rebound as the core main line—was verified. The big-tech direction includes optical communications: Changxin Xiongchuang; PCB/lines: Tongguan Tongbo; storage lines: Demingli; and in the speculative sentiment lineup, a clash-and-spike situation in business spaceflight with Shenjian at the front, where strong stocks stay strong.

2: Market analysis
Today, the index and sentiment resonated with continued volume expansion and repairs over two days. AI big-tech led the charge in a rebound—like a drought relieved by sweet rain, timely rain. After the market went through a pullback in early March for business development, right when it looked like the market was about to warm up, the house leaked and it rained all night again: at the start of March, a sudden outbreak of external conflict brought a “black swan,” extending the market’s retreat period. This led to an 11-week prolonged weak trend, with no high-point and no height of “involution” churn. After all that, this week finally welcomed the “worst-to-best” turning point, with the hard logic slow-trend flow led by institutions driving the big rebound.

Today, in both markets, 5,000 stocks rose, and only 300 fell. And both markets saw volume of 2.5 trillion, which is a volume expansion with index-sentiment warming in tandem. Institutions-led GEM and STAR Market surged nearly 6%. By direction, the mainstream is the institutions-led AI big-tech hard-logic slow-trend flow driven from an offensive standpoint. Meanwhile, the defensive directions—chemicals, oil & gas, power, pharmaceuticals, new energy—plus independent-logic small-cap sentiment “stock-pooling” were relatively weaker.

In the past two days, the offensive side’s index resonance was represented by AI big-tech. The AI NVIDIA industry chain includes PCB: Tongguan Tongbo, Shenghong, and CPO: with large-cap “main forces” such as Inception: Jizhi Yuxing? (note: keep as original wording), Xin Yisheng, Tianfu Communications, Industrial FULl, elastic long-chip Changxin Xiongchuang, and others. In the fiber-optic direction: Changfei Fiber, TDongding Interconnect, Huirong Communications, and others. In storage: Demingli, Hsuanong Chuangxin, Jiangbo Long, and others. Also included are domestically produced computing power lines such as Cambricon, Moore Threads, and “Wangsu Runze”/Online Capital, Meili Cloud, etc. AI applications such as BlueFocus, LEO, Kunlun Wanwei, and others are the main branches.

3: Bullish on the AI tech main line for a big rebound, and here’s the “avoid-the-pit” pharma pullback-trading logic (the importance of the turning point and the importance of the cycle’s offensive/defensive attributes)

Over these two days, the market looks like it’s coming back strongly. But if you look closely, the confusion factor is huge. Because many of last week’s strong popular themes—pharmaceuticals and new energy—started to catch up and fall over these two days. Yesterday, the chemical sector was that strong but today it was quietly smothered/hammered down. Even today, when the overall market was doing so well, the pharmaceutical sector that speculative sentiment had proactively tried to break through with a hard fight—Tianjin Ya? (note: keep as original wording)—was almost a “heaven-and-earth reversal” that lured people in. If, in the morning, you saw intraday repair and chased hard speculative sentiment that broke through—strong on strong—you can easily get trapped. In other words, if you pick the wrong direction, even if the move comes, it’s wasted. Whether you chased last week’s strong pharmaceuticals and new energy on Tuesday, or chased chemicals and some independent-logic small caps that formed “stock-pooling,” or even chased the breakout high-stat leader Tianjin Ya today—looking back now, it’s actually you who got strong recovery and got reversed and trapped. Who can you reason with then? Instead, the strongest these two days was the AI big-tech direction led by an institutional style that looked relatively weaker last week.

So why was it me who could stand up when others were panicking on the weekend, saying this week would see the “worst-to-best” turning point appear and the coinciding direction would be the AI big-tech direction that was institution-led and relatively weaker last week? And why at Tuesday’s open, in the low-position mode, did I screen four tech “core leaders” in the offensive direction that looked not so strong last week—Changxin Xiongchuang, Tongguan Tongbo, Demingli, ✗✗✗✗—plus Shenjian, the speculative sentiment representative offensive-direction core, instead of chasing the pharmaceuticals and new energy, chemicals, and other “liquidity-pulling traps” from last week’s stronger trends?

The logic lies in the turning point’s attribute:
Reviewing the current market, we can find that in early March, after the external-conflict shock and the index continued to sell off, at the same time the AI big-tech offensive directions that resonated with the index also fully retreated and faced pressure from the pullback. In contrast, the conflict-logic defensive directions—chemicals, oil & gas, power, new energy—kept relatively resisting weakness, pooling for safety. But only after the index bottomed at 323, the 324 node confirmed the first leg as it stabilized, and then the defensive directions—chemicals, oil & gas, power, new energy—gradually started to catch down.

Then last week the index appeared again with another selloff back to test the second leg. In that short pullback period of the second leg, the defensive direction shifted from chemicals, oil & gas, and power to pharmaceuticals—like hard-chasing and going after the “chain-up-and-breakthrough” Tianjin Ya—and some independent-logic small-cap stock-pooling such as Far Shuo? (note: keep as original wording) as the carrier. And as these two days’ 4.7 and 4.8 confirmed the stabilization of the second leg and the “worst-to-best” turning point, the defensive direction that had been pooled around pharma and independent-logic small caps from last week also exactly fell apart and continued to make up for the gap (catch down). That’s why you saw the pharma high-stat leader Tianjin Ya nearly do a heaven-and-earth reversal and trap people, while the small-cap sentiment stock-pooling on Far Shuo only started with a button opening and then failed. The defensive chemicals did a one-day “tour,” and the reason the defensive carrier power repaired was relatively weak.

Conversely, on the offensive side, whether it’s AI NVIDIA’s industry chain supported by the institutions’ hard-logic slow trend, domestically produced computing power, semiconductors, or speculative sentiment’s offensive “confidence” representatives like business spaceflight Shenjian, Shunhuo—these all came with decent repair. So the importance of the turning point—and the cycle’s offensive direction attribute and the specific carrier each represents—are also crucial.

That’s why at Tuesday’s open, the “unity of knowledge and action” screening focused on last week’s seemingly weaker offensive-tech four cores—Changxin Xiongchuang, Tongguan Tongbo, Demingli, ✗✗✗✗—and Shenjian represented by speculative sentiment, rather than the pharmaceuticals that were “the strong stay strong” last week. The reason is right here.

4: Final words
That’s just my style. But I’m not a god—I’m a person. To be real and objective, I also can’t achieve a 100% win rate, and I do experience trial-and-error failures. Still, in the long run, the overall pattern of big gains and small losses, with the overall trend continuing to shake and rise, is enough. Students who have been learning and following along will make progress. I just worry about the “fishing for three days and drying nets for two days” attitude. So no matter what you do, you must keep it up consistently. I’d also like to especially thank the die-hard fans who have been supporting me—your understanding and support through a broad market whooping kill period, never leaving and never abandoning, together pushing forward again and again!

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Personal style:
Focus on the market’s core breakout dragon! Make fewer trades! Believe in the leader! Win rate can’t reach 100%! But overall, a pattern of big profit and small profit/loss!

Hereby declare: my personal views are only for personal record and reference and do not constitute investment advice.