Price hike + purchase limits! Moutai unleashes a combination of measures. As the Baijiu bottom stabilizes, what should we focus on next?

At the beginning of the second quarter, Moutai rolled out two major moves: first, on March 30, Moutai issued an announcement to announce a price increase. The contract price for Pufei sales was raised by 8.6%, and its self-operated retail prices were raised by 2.7%. Industry observers said that the market-oriented reform has added another piece to the puzzle, which is expected to slightly increase profit margins. Second, on April 2, Moutai’s self-operated platform iMoutai limited the number of orders per day—each person is limited to 1 order per day. In other words, each person has only one chance to try to buy per day; in a single transaction, up to 1-6 bottles can be purchased. After completing one order, the person cannot participate in further purchase attempts that day.

According to Zimeng Qin, head of the consumer group at Guotai Huarong/Ha tong, analysis suggests that Moutai’s price increase is fundamentally about following the market and matching supply and demand. It not only strengthens the company’s brand pricing power, but also sends a signal that will force scalpers to clear out.

The second quarter is a traditional off-season for the liquor industry, but Moutai, against the trend, launched a “price increase + purchase limit” combo punch. This is expected to help open up incremental demand in the C-end market, accelerate the flow of inventory to real consumers, and increase the number of bottles opened. In the short term, investors should pay attention to liquor companies’ annual reports and quarterly reports for Q1—especially indicators such as performance and cash collection—since these are expected to affect the market’s judgment about the bottom of the cycle.

Many institutions currently like the high hit-rate allocation value of “low crowding + low expectations + fundamental weakness at the bottom” for leading liquor companies in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities. The leading companies are expected to take the lead in the industry’s recovery.

On the investment tools side, pay attention to the Huaxia Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH) and the Huaxia Food and Beverage ETF Fund Link C (013126.OF). These passively track the CSI sub-sector food index. After five years of continuous adjustment, the index’s valuation is 19x, placing it at the 2.71% percentile over the past decade—meaning it is below 98% of the time historically. Compared with pure liquor ETFs, the differentiated advantage of Huaxia Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH) is that it excludes liquor stocks from Tier 3 and Tier 4 cities and focuses more on leading liquor stocks in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities, with a combined weight of over 60%. Among them, Guizhou Moutai accounts for more than 18%.

Daily Economic News