World Large Enterprise Research Association: U.S. Consumer Inflation Expectations Significantly Rise in March

Xinhua News Agency, New York, March 31 (Reporter Liu Yanan and Xu Jing) Preliminary survey results released March 31 by the Conference Board, a U.S. research institution, show that due to a sharp rise in oil prices stemming from military actions by the United States and Israel against Iran, Americans’ inflation expectations for 12 months ahead warmed significantly in March.

Survey data show that the median of consumers’ inflation expectations for more than 12 months stood at 5.2% in March, significantly higher than 4.5% in February, matching the May 2025 data.

The Conference Board said that, given the “oil shock” brought by the Iran conflict, it is not surprising to see a sharp increase in consumers’ inflation expectations for more than 12 months. While higher costs arising from tariff pass-through and a large jump in oil prices are not clearly reflected in the Consumer Confidence Index or its component indices, they are clearly reflected in indicators such as inflation expectations.

The survey results released on the day show that in March, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index was 91.8, slightly higher than 91.0 in the previous month, but still in the low-range area since 2020. Among the index’s components, the index measuring consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions rose by 4.6 points to 123.3. The index of consumers’ expectations, which reflects near-term income outlook as well as business and labor market environment, fell by 1.7 points to 70.9.

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board, said that because the moderate improvement in consumers’ views of the current situation outweighed the mild downgrades in expectations for the future, the Consumer Confidence Index in March improved moderately for the second consecutive month. Even so, the index has remained on an overall downward trend since 2021.

Peterson said that in the survey, consumers’ comments on economic factors continued to lean pessimistic. Comments on prices and goods costs indicate that the cost of living remains the top concern for consumers. Since the survey sampling period significantly overlapped with the Iran conflict, comments about oil and gas and war-related conflicts increased substantially, while the number of times trade and tariffs were mentioned decreased significantly.

This consumer confidence survey is conducted based on an online sample. The preliminary survey dates for March were from March 1 to 24. (End)