Last week’s non-farm data event was quite interesting in hindsight. At the time, the market was waiting for that data to land, and it indeed caused quite a bit of volatility.

Going back to the logic at the time, non-farm employment data is too important for the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. The market expected 60k new jobs in March, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.4%, but in the current economic context, this figure is actually hard to interpret. Economists say that due to demographic shifts and immigration restrictions, the U.S. only needs about 15k new positions to keep the unemployment rate at its lowest level. Over the past year, without the healthcare sector propping things up, the U.S. has already seen a net reduction of more than 500k jobs—showing that underlying labor force momentum is weakening.

There was also a detail at the time: initial unemployment claims had just come out at 202k, far below the expected 212k, hitting a new low. This combination—strong initial claims but weak non-farm data—left the Fed quite uncomfortable. Job demand isn’t weak, but job growth is slowing down. How should we interpret that?

The dollar had already started to price this in. At the time, the U.S. dollar index fell from its high to around 99.5, closing lower for three consecutive days. First, expectations for a ceasefire in the Middle East heated up, and funds seeking safety flowed out of the dollar. Second, rate-cut expectations rebounded, and U.S. Treasury yields moved lower. But the dollar’s further path depends entirely on non-farm data. If the number of employed people unexpectedly exceeds 100k, it would be interpreted as the economy still being resilient, ruling out the possibility of Fed rate cuts, and the dollar could surge to 100.4–100.5. Conversely, if it comes in below 30k, the dollar might fall back to around 98.

The negative correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar is still holding. At that time, it was around $66k, with funding rates neutral to slightly weak, and everyone was watching from the sidelines. Now, BTC has risen to 71.73K, up 5.29% over the past 24 hours—this rebound has indeed arrived.

My assessment back then was divided into three scenarios: First, if non-farm is weaker than expected and wage growth warms a bit, the weakening in employment would reignite expectations for rate cuts, and BTC/ETH are likely to rebound, with the market leaning bullish in the short term. Second, if it matches expectations in a middle-of-the-road way—the most awkward outcome—the market would most likely churn as traders digest it. Third, if employment is stronger than expected, which is the worst for the bulls, the dollar would strengthen and crypto would face pressure.

Judging from the subsequent price action, the market ultimately moved in a bullish direction. After liquidity recovered post-holiday, the stored-up energy was indeed released all at once. The tariff landing was only a short-term disturbance; the real main thread was ceasefire expectations and the Fed’s policy direction. The lesson from this non-farm data is: don’t rush into the market when liquidity is thin—waiting until after the holiday to make a move is the steadier approach.