Just now! The global powder keg has temporarily calmed down, and most Wall Street bulls have announced that the bottom is in place. Smart money has already taken the lead!

A ceasefire agreement born of geopolitics is rapidly rewriting the pricing logic of global risk assets. Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat and an analyst known for his optimism, offered a clear verdict on Thursday: the U.S. stock market’s bottom has already been set.

His reasoning is direct and straightforward. The deal to reach a ceasefire removes the heaviest cloud hanging over the market—the risk of a large-scale escalation in military conflict. In his daily macro briefing, he further noted that if the S&P 500 can successfully reclaim the 200-day moving average—the key technical level—then the market is highly likely to see a decisive upside breakout.

The data has already provided an initial response. E-mini S&P 500 futures continuous are currently trading around 6,820, up nearly 2.5% not only, but more importantly, it has firmly held above the current 200-day moving average near 6,617. This is a watershed moment that technical traders are closely watching.

With this easing in the macro backdrop, Tom Lee reaffirmed his bullish view on various risk assets, including the “Magnificent Seven” of U.S. stocks. For the energy and basic materials sectors, he’s also optimistic, but he candidly acknowledged that the sharp overnight drop in oil prices could create short-term pressure for these sectors.

However, market consensus is far from unified. Not all observers share the same confidence in the durability of this ceasefire. In a report on Wednesday, Tom Holland, deputy global research director at the Hong Kong firm Gavekal, expressed clear reservations.

His concerns are rooted in a key detail: after the ceasefire was announced, there were clear discrepancies between the agreement contents disclosed by each side—both the U.S. and Iran. The White House proposed a 15-point plan in March, while the Iranian side, as disclosed by a news agency, presented a 10-point plan. This inconsistency in the text leaves uncertainty around the agreement’s final implementation.

Tom Holland is also among those who are skeptical about whether shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz can quickly return to normal. The throughput efficiency of this global energy artery remains a potential risk variable hovering over the market that needs to be continuously monitored.

The market story is never a single-threaded one. On one side is the optimism driven by technical indicator breakthroughs; on the other is the deep scrutiny of the ceasefire agreement’s details. This divergence itself may be the source of next stage volatility. For $BTC and $ETH—highly correlated with traditional risk assets—this debate about the “bottom” versus “risk” is crucial, and its outcome is of paramount importance.

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