Chief economists of the five major financial institutions discuss economic trends: Q1 GDP growth is expected to reach around 5%.

By Reporter Meng Ke, Han Yu

2026 is the kickoff year of the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” (Fifteen-Five) period. Since this year began, various regions and departments in China have earnestly implemented more proactive and effective macro policies, focusing on leveraging the integrated effects of stock policies and incremental policies. Economic performance has started strong, and the outlook for the opening phase is good.

Five chief economists interviewed by Securities Daily generally believe that in the first quarter, GDP growth is expected to reach around 5%, and China’s economy will achieve a “strong start.” Macro policies will stay tightly aligned with the annual targets, becoming more proactive and effective, and coordinating for precise efforts.

“Our economy is showing a ‘strong start with a good opening’ trend, and major economic indicators are improving across the board.” Ming Ming, chief economist at CITIC Securities, said in an interview with Securities Daily. From January to February, the year-over-year growth of value added by industries above designated size was 6.3%; fixed-asset investment turned from decline to growth, including a high year-over-year growth rate of 11.4% in infrastructure investment, reflecting that investment is exhibiting a sustained positive trend. Overall, the economy in the first quarter is expected to achieve a growth rate close to 5%.

“GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be 4.9%.” Wu Chaoming, chief economist of Caixin Capital and deputy head of the Caixin Research Institute, told reporters. With the economy starting strong at the beginning of the year, it shows the characteristics of “strong production, strong exports, rising investment, and stable consumption.” Driven jointly by the cumulative effects of “stabilizing growth” policies and structural growth in external demand, the economy in the first quarter is expected to achieve a “strong start.”

“Driven by consumption around the Spring Festival in the first quarter, market demand increased somewhat, CPI rose at a phased stage, consumption growth rates were simultaneously boosted, the overall operation of the national economy remained steady, and GDP growth in the first quarter is expected to be around 5%.” Yang Delong, chief economist at Qianhai Open-Source Fund, said.

Chen Li, assistant to the president and chief economist, and head of the research institute at Sichuan F&D Securities, said that in the first quarter, China’s macro economy has started strong and the opening is favorable. Major indicators have stabilized, the structure continues to improve, market expectations have improved, industrial production is accelerating in its recovery, the momentum in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing is strong, the consumption market is growing steadily, the price level is rising moderately, and employment and people’s livelihoods are well protected. New quality productive forces are being accelerated in cultivation and expansion. The economy is showing a good trend of steady progress and improving in the process, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target.

The 2026 Government Work Report proposes that “the main expected targets for development this year are: economic growth of 4.5%—5%, and in practical work we will strive to achieve even better results,” and it also clearly states to “implement more proactive and effective macro policies, enhancing policy foresight, pertinence, and policy coordination.”

Chen Li expects that macro policies will always stay closely aligned with the annual target tasks, becoming more proactive and effective and coordinating for precise efforts. Fiscal policy will step up and improve efficiency, speeding up the implementation and effectiveness of ultra-long special government bonds and policy-based financial instruments, expanding effective investment and promoting consumption growth. It will uphold a moderately loose monetary policy to stabilize growth, jobs, and prices, keeping liquidity reasonably abundant and lowering overall financing costs. Meanwhile, it will strengthen overall coordination and connection among policies related to industry, science and technology, employment, and regions, focusing on expanding domestic demand, deepening reform, preventing risks, and improving expectations. It will work to remove bottlenecks in economic circulation, promote the combined effect of stock and incremental policies for enhanced efficiency, and spare no effort to consolidate a favorable basis for economic growth and strive for better development results.

Ming Ming said that on the fiscal front, the approval and issuance timeline for special-purpose local government bond projects will be accelerated, and the proportion used for project construction will be increased. Major “Fifteenth Five-Year” engineering projects will also be advanced. In terms of boosting domestic demand, plans to increase income for urban and rural residents will be implemented faster, and special funds to stimulate domestic demand through coordination between fiscal and financial authorities will be promoted. On the monetary policy front, it will maintain a moderately loose stance, appropriately cut required reserve ratios and interest rates, release liquidity support. In addition, through structural monetary policy tools, it will focus on promoting development in areas such as domestic demand and science and technology.

Wen Bin, chief economist at Minsheng Bank, said it is expected that this year fiscal expenditure will continue to maintain a considerable scale, and that structural monetary policy tools will continue to optimize and innovate, with the力度 of expanding domestic demand being increased noticeably.

(Editor: Wen Jing)

Key words:

                                                            GDP
                                                            Economy