Determine the bottom-buying zone based on $BTC holder loss status

There is a simple but very practical rule in history: when most people are losing money, it’s actually a good time to slowly accumulate coins. Because most willing sellers have already sold, and market sentiment has cooled down.

In each cycle, this state of widespread loss often lasts for several months or even longer. The bottom is not formed in a single day, and there’s a good chance that new lows will be tested again in the middle.

Looking at the data more specifically, if more than half (50%) of the chips across the network are in loss, it’s basically very close to the bottom; if it reaches around 60%, it’s usually a very comfortable zone in history—an area where others are hopeless, and you can start seriously picking up chips.

Currently, in this bear market, during the decline, this ratio has only reached about 45%, and hasn’t hit that truly extreme level yet. So there’s a high probability that there will be more time ahead for more people to shift from holding on to giving up and exiting, which is the so-called clearing stage.

My own approach is also very simple: not to guess the lowest point, but to wait until the market enters a phase of accumulated losses + time testing patience, then buy in batches. Because this stage has two advantages: first, selling pressure has mostly been released; second, after you build your position, the risk of continued dumping by others is much lower.

And from a historical perspective, this truly comfortable buying zone usually appears only after a 60%–70% drop from the high.