Economist: U.S. March CPI Month-over-Month Could Surge 1%, Federal Reserve May Find It Difficult to Cut Rates This Year

ME News message, on April 5 (UTC+8), economists said that the sudden jump in gasoline prices felt firsthand by American consumers will be reflected in the key inflation data to be released this week. It is expected that the U.S. March CPI will rise 1% month over month, which would be the largest single-month increase since 2022; core CPI could rise 0.3% month over month. Earlier, the Iran war pushed U.S. gas station gasoline prices up by about $1 per gallon. One day before the CPI data is released, an inflation gauge favored by the Federal Reserve will provide information on pre-war price pressures. Economists expect the core PCE price index may rise 0.4% for a third consecutive month in February, indicating that even before the conflict erupted, the process of bringing inflation down to a more moderate level has stalled. Combined with signs of stabilization in the U.S. labor market, stubborn price pressures, and new inflation risks brought by the war in the Middle East, this helps explain why the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year. (Source: Jin10)