Zhang Yidong: Gold and hard technology are not a seesaw but resonate upward together

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After the ceasefire takes effect, will gold and technology stocks function as a seesaw, or will they move higher together in a convergence? Zhang Yidong, Chief Economist at Haitong International, provides insight in the latest interview on the hot issues that investors are concerned about.>>Video details

Zhang Yidong points out that during the recent market adjustment, gold and technology stocks have shown a synchronized decline, which bears the clear characteristics of a liquidity shock. Once the liquidity shock is resolved, both will strengthen together, but their respective rally logic differs.

The logic behind gold’s rise is that once TACO takes effect, the market will gain a clearer understanding that the United States is no longer mysterious and no longer invincible. This recognition will accelerate the shaking of the foundation of the petrodollar, and the strategic value of gold as a sovereign credit hedge tool will become even more prominent.

The logic behind tech growth’s rise is that if the United States disengages from the Middle East, it will most likely adopt a “pushing liquidity” policy next to ease domestic economic pressure. Zhang Yidong cites the latest Reuters poll showing that Trump’s economic approval rating has fallen to a new low since taking office, even lower than the level during Biden’s term. Against this backdrop, rate-cut expectations will push the risk-free yield downward, providing positive support for a short-term rebound in growth stocks.

The real seesaw is crude oil—not gold and technology

Zhang Yidong emphasizes that if a risk-on scenario driven by TACO emerges, the asset that truly creates a seesaw effect is crude oil and the energy chain. In the recent market, overseas investors have shown a risk-averse allocation pattern of “one side cash (dollars), one side the energy chain,” which has harmed gold and technology growth. Once the ceasefire is implemented, this allocation will reverse, and crude oil will face pressure as marginal weakness sets in.

U.S. tech stocks face a “hard bubble” crack

When discussing U.S. technology growth stocks, Zhang Yidong reminds that 2026 is very likely to be the year when the U.S. capital market’s risk premium reverses. Ever since the 2008 subprime crisis, the U.S. risk premium has remained at historical highs for 18 consecutive years.

He points out that even if U.S. tech stocks rebound after the ceasefire, the driving force will shift from validation of the “PPT story” to verification from the “three statements”—especially the sustainability of the cash flow statement and the clarity of the business model. “If this war hadn’t happened, the hard bubble in AI might not have cracked so quickly; and this war has caused deep cracks in the hard bubble of AI.”

Zhang Yidong specifically mentions that the U.S. private credit market (with a scale of about $300–40k) has started to experience ongoing credit blowups, further confirming the trend toward a reversal in the risk premium of U.S. assets.

Investment strategy: position gold and hard-core tech on the left side

For investors, Zhang Yidong suggests that if there is no near-term performance evaluation pressure, the current approach can use a left-side positioning strategy, focusing on two types of assets: first, gold; second, technology companies with hard-core capabilities—including excellent tech firms in the A-share, Hong Kong stock, and U.S. markets whose business models are clear and cash flows are predictable.

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责任编辑：杨赐