Guoxin Futures: External conflicts ease, thermal coal and coking coal prices fluctuate and pull back

K-LinePoet · 2026-04-09T00:51:06+00:00

Coking coal 2605 fluctuated and declined at the low levels. Influenced by the stabilization of the Middle East situation and the decline in crude oil prices, the market has reverted to fundamental-based pricing. On the supply side, high operating rates and inventory accumulation limit the rebound of coking coal, while on the demand side, low profits for steel mills restrict its rise. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and demand risks, and a range-bound strategy is recommended.

K-LinePoet

2026-04-09 00:51:06

Abstract generation in progress

Coking coal 2605 opened low and slid lower in a choppy market. In the near term, the Middle East situation has not deteriorated further; crude oil surged and then pulled back; the logic behind energy-substitution speculation has weakened; the market has returned to pricing based on fundamentals. Coupled with earlier longs taking profits and the main contract rolling from the front month to the next month, resulting in reduced liquidity, a pullback was triggered.

On the supply side, the operating rates in major producing areas in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia remain high, Mongolian coking coal cross-border clearance stays at a high level, and port inventories have been accumulating.

On the demand side, blast furnace iron output has rebounded, but margins are only average; acceptance of price increases for coke is weak, which suppresses rebounds in coking coal; and realization of terminal peak-season demand has fallen short of expectations.

Overall, price action shows choppy trading and a pullback. Investors should be alert to risks from geopolitical factors, crude oil, and demand fluctuations. It is recommended to trade within a range. (Guoxin Futures)

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