Recently, I’ve been thinking about a question: what specific patterns are hidden within the bull and bear market cycles in the crypto world? This isn’t just about simple price upswings and downswings—it’s about the underlying logic of time behind it.

Just look back at history to see the clues. In 2017, when Bitcoin surged to 20,000 US dollars, everyone across the internet was shouting “straight to the moon,” and that kind of wild atmosphere still feels pretty magical when you think about it now. But then, from 2018 to 2019, prices kept plunging all the way down to a few thousand US dollars, and countless people were shaken out in that bear market. This is the norm in crypto—bull and bear markets alternate and cycle like tides ebbing and flowing.

What’s interesting is that if you look at the data over the years, you’ll find an approximate cycle: the years 2013, 2017, and 2021 all correspond to clear bull-market peak points. Hidden behind this is an approximately 4-year bull-and-bear cycle. Generally speaking, bull markets last for a shorter time—usually around a year—while bear markets last much longer, potentially stretching 2 years or even more.

Take 2025 as an example. At that time, the U.S. policy of pumping liquidity really did boost overall market sentiment, and Bitcoin really did break through the 150,000 US dollars threshold. But what’s the logic behind it? Halving cycle, institutional positioning, retail FOMO—when these factors stack up together, they form the typical characteristics of a bull market. When the whales and institutions promote good news at the top, and a large number of retail investors rush in, it’s often the end of the bull market.

However, this bull-and-bear cycle is not an iron rule. Changes in policy, the state of the global economy, and market demand—these factors can all throw the schedule off. Some people say prices will rise 10 times after the halving, but it also depends on the market environment at that time. On average, Bitcoin takes 33 months to kick off a new bull market cycle, but this cycle keeps evolving as well.

Now looking back at 2026, the market has already gone through a full round-trip rotation of bull and bear markets. Only projects with real strength survived; all those bubble-like things were cleared out long ago. This is the crypto industry’s self-purification process.

For participants, understanding the importance of bull and bear market cycles boils down to this: during bull markets, don’t be overly greedy; during bear markets, be patient. Market volatility is inevitable, so be ready to face challenges at any time. As blockchain technology keeps developing, this bull-and-bear cycle may become more and more complex, but the basic logic is still the same—time and strength are the best witnesses. Only those who can make it through this cycle will ultimately be able to truly seize the opportunities.