Q1: In times of big gains and big drops, what is the most important investment trap to watch out for?

In recent weeks, news can reverse every 15 minutes—during such intense volatility, being overly pessimistic or overly optimistic is inappropriate. The class specifically mentioned the "disposition effect" from behavioral finance: many investors (including institutional clients) can't resist cutting losses at the deepest decline, selling at the lowest point. Similarly, chasing after sharp gains today may also face a correction after news reverses again. It is recommended not to be fully in or out of the market—being fully out can cause constant anxiety, and chasing can lead to buy-high-sell-low. Maintain a comfortable, low-position stance to observe calmly.

Q2: Has the US economy fallen into recession because of the war? What will the Federal Reserve do?
The March non-farm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations (adding 178k jobs), pouring cold water on the recession narrative—at least in the early stages of the war, the US labor market remains relatively stable. However, this does not mean the economy is booming: the increase in jobs is largely due to seasonal adjustments in weather-sensitive industries, the end of strikes, and statistical model effects; improvements in the unemployment rate are also related to declining labor force participation (affected by anti-immigration policies); wage growth is slightly below expectations. So, the data mainly reflect resilience rather than a strong recovery.
Since employment remains stable and inflation faces upward pressure from energy prices, the Fed is likely to keep a wait-and-see stance. The market no longer expects rate cuts in the short term; it is more likely to keep rates steady in the first half of the year, with rate cut expectations pushed back to September or later. However, the threshold for short-term rate hikes remains high—Powell explicitly stated that energy price shocks are often temporary, and the Fed can "see through" such supply-side shocks. In short: no rate cuts, no rate hikes, and remaining on hold is the most probable baseline scenario.

Q3: What is the fundamental situation of the Chinese economy? Is the A-share market worth being optimistic about?
PMI data looks promising on the surface, but the structure needs careful analysis. In March, the PMI purchase prices component reached 63.9, with a very sharp month-on-month increase, mainly driven by rising prices in chemicals and oil & gas, heavily influenced by Middle East tensions. However, the factory gate prices increased much less than purchase prices—downstream manufacturers' profits are being squeezed. China's energy structure is mainly coal-based, with the Strait of Hormuz affecting supply by about 4%–5%, so the impact is relatively limited. But internal price competition means this structural benefit is unlikely to directly boost corporate profits.
The recovery of the two major domestic demand engines—real estate and consumption—still needs observation. The rebound in real estate transactions is mainly concentrated in first-tier cities, with many second-tier cities showing less-than-ideal data; consumer recovery depends on the repair of household balance sheets—stocks have been declining in the second half of the month, and the housing market's recovery is unstable. Whether residents dare to spend remains uncertain. Recently, the A-share market has shrunk to about 16 trillion yuan (close to the level before the market rally in November last year). Public funds and pension funds are generally cautious, and insufficient incremental capital has led to increased volatility in both directions, with serious sector clustering. The market may have a rebound and recovery sentiment, but the second quarter remains a window period for observation and validation; it is too early to draw conclusions.
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