U.S. stock market semiconductors plunge overnight, Intel drops over 5%, Chinese concept stocks mostly decline, international oil prices sharply tumble in the short term

Thursday (March 12), all three major U.S. stock indexes finished lower across the board. The Dow fell 1.56%, the S&P 500 fell 1.52%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.78%.

Large-cap tech stocks were all down. Tesla fell more than 3%, Facebook fell more than 2%, Apple fell nearly 2%, and Google, Nvidia, and Amazon fell more than 1%.

Chip stocks generally declined. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.43%, Intel fell more than 5%, TSMC fell 5%, Micron Technology, Texas Instruments, and NXP Semiconductors fell more than 4%, AMD fell more than 3%, and Micron Technology fell more than 3%.

Bank stocks fell across the board. JPMorgan fell more than 1%, Goldman Sachs fell more than 4%, Citigroup fell more than 3%, Morgan Stanley fell more than 4%, Bank of America fell nearly 3%, and Wells Fargo fell more than 2%.

Airline stocks were weak. Boeing fell more than 4%, American Airlines fell more than 4%, Delta Air Lines fell more than 2%, Southwest Airlines fell more than 7%, and United Airlines fell more than 4%.

Energy stocks rose against the trend. Exxon Mobil rose more than 1%, Chevron rose more than 2%, ConocoPhillips rose more than 2%, Schlumberger fell more than 7%, and Occidental Petroleum rose more than 5%.

Most China concept stocks declined. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 1.02%. HSA Technology fell more than 5%, CenturyLink fell more than 5%, iQIYI fell more than 4%, Yaduo fell more than 4%, and XiaomiSmart Technology fell more than 4%; XPeng Motors rose more than 3%, Tencent Music rose more than 2%, and Artes SunPower rose nearly 2%.

On March 13, gold and silver opened mixed. As of the time of this writing, spot gold was up 0.2%, at $5,088 per troy ounce. Spot silver once fell more than 0.3%, then rebounded back into gains, and the latest price was $84 per troy ounce.

International crude oil opened higher. WTI crude oil once broke above $98 per barrel, then saw a sharp drop in the short term and fell below $96 per troy ounce.

According to a report by CCTV News, on the local time of the 12th, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Rawanqi, said in an interview with the media that Iran allows ships from some countries to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Rawanqi said some countries discussed with Iran issues related to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran cooperated with them, but the countries that participated in invading Iran do not enjoy the “safe passage rights” of the Strait of Hormuz.

Also, according to a CCTV News report, on the local time of the 12th, the spokesperson for the Central Headquarters of Iran’s armed forces, Khatam Anbia, warned the United States and Israel and all their allies that any actions targeting Iran’s energy facilities and ports would trigger a strong counterattack by Iran. If such an incident occurs, all oil and gas facilities of the United States and its allies in the region would face the risk of being ignited and destroyed.

With hopes that the Middle East conflict would end quickly all but dashed, U.S. inflation risks have significantly heated up, and the surge in crude oil prices may also feed into core inflation.

In the view of Lu Zhe, chief economist at Soochow Securities, if oil prices remain at $80–$100 per barrel, over the next six months the U.S. CPI should refer to a 0.3%–0.4% quarter-on-quarter midpoint; by September, the year-on-year CPI growth rate is likely to be between 2.8% and 3.5%. If oil prices spiral upward and get out of control, U.S. inflation would likely replay the double tops of the great stagflation period of the 1970s.

In its latest “Global Economic Outlook for March 2026,” Fitch Ratings raised its forecast for the average 2026 Brent crude oil price from $63 per barrel to $70 per barrel. This assumes that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for about a month. In the second half of 2026, oil prices would fall to around $60 per barrel. This revision did not have a major impact on baseline economic forecasts.

But if oil prices rise to $100 per barrel and stay at that level, global supply would be hit severely. Fitch Ratings expects that after four quarters, global GDP would fall by 0.4%, and the U.S. inflation rate would rise by 1.2–1.5 percentage points.

CME’s latest “FedWatch” data shows that the probability the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points by March is 0.9%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 99.1%. The probability of cumulative 25-basis-point cuts by April is 3.9%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 96.0%, and the probability of cumulative 50-basis-point cuts is 0%. By June, the probability of cumulative 25-basis-point cuts is 19.5%.

Because inflation risks have risen due to the Middle East conflict, Goldman Sachs has delayed its expectations for Fed rate cuts. It now expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September and December, respectively. Previously, Goldman Sachs had expected the new round of rate-cut cycle to begin in June, and then cut again in September.