【Reaffirmation: I Hate Short Selling】

Especially right now—$BTC ‌BTC monthly MACD is in a death cross at a high level, $ETH ‌ETH weekly RSI is turning downward, and the entire market is stuck in a chaotic oscillation of “long-term stagnation and short-term dips”—I am more averse to short selling than ever.

Because at this stage, short selling is not wisdom; it’s suicide.

Many people think: “The trend is downward, isn’t short selling just going with the flow?”

No, that’s the biggest misconception. In the monthly adjustment, the “trend” is chaotic, a combination of “gradual decline + violent rebound.” You think it’s going with the trend, but in reality, you’re betting on whether a “dead cat bounce” will suddenly jump and blow you up.

Look at Bitcoin and Ethereum:

• Bitcoin, like a giant with arthritis, drops two steps, gasps three breaths. You see it as weak, open a short, and it can counter with a 5% rebound to tell you who’s boss. ETF buying support underneath keeps it from falling too deep, but enough to be squeezed by high leverage.

• Ethereum, more like an emotional star. Rumors of an ETH spot ETF can make it suddenly revive, causing all shorts to doubt their lives. Its rises and falls are driven more by news and sentiment than by smooth trends.

In this kind of market, short selling is like dancing tap dance in a minefield. You think you understand the map, but which mine will explode, when, is entirely up to the weather.

So, I choose to “wait it out.”

My strategy is simple to the point of being dull:

1. Most of my funds are converted into U, lying idle. This is not surrender; it’s reserve rations. When the market panics to the extreme due to Japan’s rate hike or some black swan event, when the weekly RSI drops into 30, and everyone is crying for a cut, these U are my shovels for picking up bloodied chips.

2. I don’t watch hourly charts, rarely look at daily, and focus more on weekly charts. Ignore those jittery fluctuations that make your heart race, and pay attention to whether the long-term trend is truly broken. The monthly MACD death cross tells me spring is still early, so I keep my warm coat on and wait patiently.

“Waiting” is not doing nothing; it’s top-tier risk management.

It’s not about proving your bravery during a decline, nor exposing greed during rebounds. True profit comes from holding through the main bull market wave, and those who can hold until then are survivors who rely on cash to live through the bear market.

I hate short selling because I deeply understand that in this market, “staying alive” always takes precedence over “making quick money.” Making friends with time, cash is my most loyal ally.