U.S. stocks edged higher, JPMorgan warns Tesla's stock could drop another 60%, crude oil holds steady at $110.

2026.04.07

Word count: 1,787; reading time: about 3 minutes

Author | First Finance, Fan Zhijing

Wall Street edged higher on Monday, as investors focused on developments in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to increase pressure on Iran if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 165.21 points, up 0.36%, to 46,669.88. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.54% to 21,996.34. The S&P 500 rose 0.44% to 6,611.83 points.

A mix of gains and losses among blue-chip tech stocks: Amazon, Apple, and Google rose more than 1%; Nvidia gained 0.14%; Microsoft and Meta fell slightly. Tesla dropped 2.15%. JPMorgan Chase cut its earnings forecast for Tesla, warning that its stock price has 60% downside room.

On individual stocks, the storage sector performed well. Seagate Technology rose 5.58%, and Morgan Stanley raised its target price from $468 to $582. Western Digital, Micron Technology, and SanDisk all rose more than 3%.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.32%. Marvell Technology rose 2.24%, AMD gained 1.23%, and TSMC and Intel rose 0.80%.

Asset management giant Invesco fell 5.2%. Previously, Goldman Sachs cut its target price from $30 to $27 and maintained a “Neutral” rating.

The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.21%. Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.com rose about 0.2%. PDD Holdings was flat. NetEase fell 0.16%.

The situation in the Middle East remains tense. According to CCTV News, on April 6 local time, at a press conference held at the White House, President Donald Trump said that if Iran did not “surrender” before 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time on April 7, he would launch attacks on Iran’s civilian infrastructure. Trump said a deal he could accept must be reached before the final deadline on April 7. He claimed he would destroy Iran’s bridges and power plants: “I’ve already put a plan in place. Once it’s activated, every bridge inside Iran will be completely destroyed, and every power plant inside Iran will be completely crippled.” He also said that if the U.S. were willing, “the entire destruction process would only take a matter of four short hours.” However, he claimed, “I don’t want this to happen.”

Earlier reports said the U.S., Iran, and mediators in relevant regions have been discussing the terms of a “potential 45-day ceasefire” agreement, aimed at pushing for the complete end of the war. Citing Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency on April 6, Xinhua News Agency reported that Iran has responded to Pakistan regarding the proposal to end the war put forward by the United States. The response includes 10 provisions. The core contents include: emphasizing that the war must come to a permanent end in accordance with Iran’s concerns; and putting forward a range of demands, such as ending regional conflicts, establishing a security and safe passage agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, post-war reconstruction, and lifting sanctions.

Wells Fargo Investment Institute said in a client report on Monday: “In the coming weeks, the risk of war escalation will remain unacceptably high. Rising oil prices are pushing up transportation and fertilizer prices, exacerbating economic challenges faced by global economies that depend on energy imports.”

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that supply-chain disruptions caused by the Iran war could keep inflation and interest rates at levels higher than expected.

U.S.-Iran hostilities have disrupted markets for more than a month. A surge in crude oil prices has sparked concerns about inflation, and stocks have fallen sharply, with the S&P 500 down 4% since the outbreak of the conflict. After Trump’s remarks, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) remained elevated, at 24.17.

“The market may be underestimating how severe the impact on the global economy is,” Michael Rosen, chief investment officer of Angeles Investments, said. “I think the market has not fully recognized the short- and medium-term impacts of an energy supply disruption, which means energy prices may stay elevated for a longer period of time.”

Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT, said: “On days like today, investors won’t take much action. We actually don’t know which side the truth of any news is on—whether it’s the U.S., Iran, or Pakistan.” Martin added: “Trump has to get the Strait of Hormuz reopened… he’s making a big issue of this. Investors are all restless and waiting anxiously.”

U.S. Treasury yields in the medium and long term moved within a narrow range. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell 1 basis point to 4.34%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury, closely tied to rate expectations, was essentially flat at 3.85%.

On economic data, Monday’s releases showed that the U.S. March ISM Services PMI fell from 56.1 to 54, with the expansion pace slower than expected. At the same time, employment in the industry contracted, while the Prices Paid Index, a forward-looking inflation indicator, jumped to the highest level since October 2022.

In a report, ING said: “The ISM services data performance is decent and is consistent with the U.S. 2026 economic growth forecast of 2.5% annualized. But what is worrying is that the March employment component fell sharply, while input prices surged, showing that after the escalation of the Middle East conflict heightened economic and market anxiety, businesses’ cautious sentiment has risen.”

International oil prices bottomed out and rebounded. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement remains clouded with uncertainty. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) reached an agreement last Sunday among eight member countries to increase daily oil production quotas for May by 206k barrels, marking the second consecutive month of production increases. The WTI near-month contract rose 0.78% to $112.41 per barrel, while the Brent near-month contract rose 0.90% to $110.05 per barrel.

The precious metals market saw modest fluctuations. Traders focused on the outlook for U.S. inflation and the Middle East situation. As of the time of publication, COMEX gold for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was down nearly 0.2%, trading around $4,670 per ounce. COMEX silver futures were flat at $72.90 per ounce.

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