Has the A-shares market bottomed out in the short term? Here are the strategies from the top ten brokerages.

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Source: 财联社

Caixin-she, April 6 report: This week, China’s A-share market saw downward volatility. Looking at the major broad-based indices, this week most of the main broad-based A-share indices closed lower overall. Among them, the Shanghai 50 and the SSE Composite and CSI 300 saw relatively smaller declines, while the ChiNext index, STAR 50, and CSI 500 saw relatively larger declines. How will the market unfold next? Let’s look at the latest consolidated strategies from the top ten brokerages.

CITIC Securities: Narrow positioning, hold to China’s manufacturing strengths

If we look at ETFs for now, the only ETFs that are still maintaining above the 30-week moving average are those related to communications, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, oil and gas, and semiconductor materials/equipment, etc. In essence, they mostly fall into categories like North America AI, clean energy and chemicals, and upstream resource themes. After this round of rebound, innovative drugs have returned to above the 30-week moving average. The industrial logic is relatively independent, and they also show certain characteristics of liquidity insensitivity. Dividend-style items (such as coal and green electricity) have consistently stayed above their trend lines. In fact, even if the conflict between the U.S. and Iran ends, we only need to focus on three issues along the clean energy and chemicals chain: price transmission for the 能化 (clean energy and chemicals) segment, resource pricing, and AI hardware demand—because market funds have already made their choice.

In terms of allocation, we will firmly build around pricing power for China’s manufacturing strengths. The current suggested bottom-core positions are still industries where China has share advantages, overseas capacity reset costs are high and difficult to change, and supply elasticity is likely to be affected by policies—based on new energy, chemicals, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals. The recent liquidity shock has pushed many valuations back into “cheap” territory. Extremely negative scenarios and narratives resemble the overseas-going categories after April 7 last year, which once again brought massive expectation gaps and low valuations. On top of these bottom-core positions, we recommend continuing to increase exposure to low-valuation factors, with a focus on insurance, brokerages, and electricity. In addition, we highlight attention to the innovative drug sector: its stock prices are relatively less correlated with liquidity shocks, and the industrial logic is still advancing.

China Merchants Securities: In April’s mid-to-late period, market focus will shift to first-quarter report areas with high earnings growth

Looking ahead to April, external risks facing A-shares have not been substantively eased. The U.S. is currently accelerating military mobilization. As the carrier strike group led by the “Bush” aircraft carrier (the “USS Bush” group) completes deployment in mid-April, the likelihood of implementing ground operations will rise significantly. There is a risk that the U.S.-Iran conflict could upgrade beyond expectations. In this context, upward pressure on oil prices will further intensify the market’s concerns about global stagflation. If the U.S. military launches a ground attack in the mid-to-late part of April—whether due to casualties exceeding expectations during combat, or because a surge in oil prices triggers a deep pullback across global stock markets—the Trump administration may be forced to pivot toward a calming strategy, and the market may stage a typical “dilemma reversal”行情.

On the domestic front, after the conclusion of the two sessions in March and the release of the “15th Five-Year Plan” (十五五) outline, key investment projects are expected to accelerate implementation, becoming a core driver for a rebound in domestic investment growth. If external shocks significantly increase economic uncertainty, the end of April meeting of the Politburo is expected to further intensify supportive measures to stabilize growth.

Based on a comprehensive assessment, the second half of April will be a key window for marginal improvement in both domestic and foreign conditions. Once external shocks fade, in the mid-to-late part of April, the market’s focus will shift to areas with high earnings growth in first-quarter reports. Based on current data, resource sectors such as non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals, as well as new energy, optical communications, and the semiconductor industry chain, are likely to become the industries with the most eye-catching earnings growth rates.

Industrial Securities: Seek high-quality assets that have been “mistakenly sold” due to emotional inertia during this round of conflict

Seek high-quality assets that have been “mistakenly sold” due to emotional inertia during this round of conflict, and gradually focus the portfolio structure toward directions with certainty in business conditions. This is not only the core allocation thinking during April’s earnings disclosure period, but also a logic change the market will repeatedly reinforce—after this year’s pricing environment shifts—requiring deeper recognition and increased attention.

Combining the price changes since March, we screen top-performing industries affected more by external shocks this round, mainly including: AI (domestic semiconductor compute power for AI, PCB, and mid-to-lower stream (games, consumer electronics)), advanced manufacturing (new energy, defense and military industry), cyclicals (non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, glass-fiber), service consumption & new consumption (retail, accessories, pet economy), and non-bank financials, etc.

Haitai Securities: Risk remains imbalanced, especially insufficient repricing for growth downgrades

Current pricing: Risk remains imbalanced, especially insufficient repricing for growth downgrades

Compared with merely replicating historical experience, the difference in this round is that the global demand starting level is lower, the risk of overseas wage/price cycles getting unanchored and inflation losing its anchor is lower, and the necessity of forced further rate hikes is also lower—so the pressure for a deep recession is not large. But precisely because the global economy isn’t strong, compared with the one-year gap between the second and third stages of the late 1970s and the six-month interval in 2022, the timing of global growth downgrades this round may come earlier, making the handling of the pace even more important.

The tradable expectation gap: rebalancing internal and external demand

1) Bottom-core products with relatively strong certainty and the highest consensus: the energy and power chain. 2) The expectation gap across internal and external demand. In the domestic-demand chain, increase allocations to parts of essential consumption with low cost and low business-condition volatility, and domestic-demand products whose trading data has improved and benefit from policy hedging. For external demand, avoid optional categories with large exposure to Asia and the Middle East and weak ability to pass through price increases—such as consumer electronics, textile manufacturing, and home appliances (black-and-white TVs and small home appliances). Look for missed opportunities among midstream capital goods with strong hedging ability. 3) The main line that is short-term pressured by liquidity but has not changed the medium-term trend: the AI chain and RMB appreciation—pullbacks may provide opportunities to accumulate positions.

Everbright Securities: A-shares have most likely already found the bottom in the short term; the next phase may mainly be about range-bound repair

A-shares have most likely already found the bottom in the short term; the next phase may mainly be about range-bound repair. April is a traditional “decision window” for the A-share market. Two major core events will determine the direction of the market’s mid-term operations:

First, listed companies’ annual reports and first-quarter reports will be released in a concentrated wave. The market is expected to gradually shift from earlier theme-driven expectations to fundamental-based pricing.

Second, a major meeting held in late April will set the tone for the full-year economic development. The market broadly expects that policy will continue the baseline of “moderately loose monetary policy and active fiscal policy,” and policies such as the “eight measures to boost consumption,” as well as super-long-term special treasury bonds to support replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, will continue to be implemented and take effect.

On allocation, you can structure the portfolio around two main lines: “benefiting from high oil prices + earnings certainty.” First, the broad energy theme, including industries that directly benefit from rising oil prices such as coal, coal-to-chemicals, oil and gas, shipping and port operators, etc., as well as new energy segments with an energy substitution logic such as photovoltaic, energy storage, wind power, and nuclear power. Second, the top-quality tech theme, focusing on areas like electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), communications, and power equipment (AI power, energy storage)—sectors that have strong industrial trends support and strong earnings delivery capacity.

Kaiyuan Securities: It’s time to position from the left side—capture opportunities with ΔG tech + high dividend yield

The “second-order effect” of how war is being played out has already begun to change. Of course, this is not yet confirmation from the right side. But from an allocation perspective, left-side signals are already present, meaning you can be somewhat more proactive than before. Still, we need to emphasize: left-side signals are an important time point for a relative return contest, but right-side signals are the best entry timing for absolute returns. In the short term, the technology names that were most damaged previously often benefit the most. In the long run, what truly deserves attention remains ΔG growth. If oil prices and related volatility continue to fall after this, market risk appetite may be expected to repair further—then growth may still be one of the directions with the largest repair elasticity.

Investment thesis—It’s time to position from the left side—capture opportunities with ΔG tech + high dividend yield

For the upcoming operations, we believe: the conflict hasn’t ended, but the worst repricing phase may be passing. You can start trying to set up attacks on the left side, but you shouldn’t be overly aggressive. Meanwhile, technology growth is still the direction that deserves the most attention.

Allocation approach:

(1) Growth is still the strongest main line this cycle, but the investment approach needs to change: ΔG + profit redistribution. Focus on: power capital (power equipment, energy metals), compute power capital (storage, semiconductors, robotics, liquid cooling), platform applications (Hong Kong-listed internet), and innovative drugs;

(2) We emphasize that high-dividend yield in 2026 is better than in 2025. Focus on high-dividend stocks that incorporate ΔG: coal, insurance, media, petrochemicals, and transportation;

(3) “Options” after a potential bottoming in real estate prices: optional consumption and services consumption recovery driven by stabilization in the balance sheet (high-end commercial properties, outdoor sports, tourism, hotels, food services, etc.).

Huajin Securities: A-shares may have potentially already bottomed out in the short term

At present, fundamentals may continue to recover, overseas risks have been released, and pessimism in sentiment has already been quite sufficient, while policy is still relatively positive—so A-shares may have already bottomed out in the short term.

(1) In the short term, the economy and earnings may continue to follow an upward trend. First, the economy may continue to rebound in the near term: manufacturing business conditions could further improve; second, real estate sales may stabilize in the short term, and with the peak season for construction commencing, infrastructure investment may maintain relatively high growth rates. Second, in the short term corporate earnings may continue to rise: first, year-over-year PPI growth may continue to rebound, and profit growth rates for industrial enterprises may extend their upward trend; second, with commodity prices staying at high levels and technology hardware business conditions remaining strong, first-quarter earnings growth for A-shares may continue to enter a recovery cycle.

(2) In the short term, the release of external risks and pessimistic sentiment may have already been largely sufficient, and policy may remain relatively positive. First, the release of external risks in the near term has been fairly sufficient: first, the capital market has lowered its expectations for further escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict; second, the likelihood of a deal being reached through short-term U.S.-Iran negotiations and the conflict ending is still present. Second, valuation and sentiment adjustments have been fairly sufficient, but they have not reached historical extremely low levels. Third, short-term policy may still be positive.

(3) In the short term, liquidity may continue to remain loose, and stock market capital may return to some extent.

Sector allocation: In the short term, continue to allocate at lower levels to top-quality technology and some cyclicals, etc.

(1) During a bottoming-range period, top-quality technology and cyclical sectors may perform relatively better. First, when reviewing history, in bottoming-range periods, sectors supported by policy, with upward industrial trends and higher ranking earnings-growth, tend to outperform. Second, based on current conditions, in the short term sectors such as electronics, communications, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment may be relatively strong.

(2) First-quarter report earnings growth may be relatively high in sectors such as transportation, non-ferrous metals, electronics, computer software, and defense and military. First, according to Wind’s consensus forecast, first-quarter report earnings growth for sectors such as steel, computers, media, and defense and military may be high. Second, for January to February 2026, cumulative year-over-year industrial enterprise profit growth is high for sectors such as transportation, non-ferrous metals, TMT, and public utilities. Third, first-quarter earnings growth for real estate, coal, and defense and military this year may benefit from a low base. Fourth, in upstream sectors like petrochemicals and non-ferrous metals and chemicals, business conditions in the first quarter may improve, while midstream sectors such as electronics and communications may see improvements in first-quarter business conditions.

(3) In the short term, we recommend continuing to allocate at lower levels: first, communications (AI hardware), electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), electricals & new energy (AI power, energy storage), innovative drugs, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and defense and military (commercial aerospace) with policy and industrial trends moving upward; second, low-valuation dividend sectors such as coal, power, and banks.

China Galaxy: The market will most likely maintain a pattern of choppy differentiation, making it difficult for a trend-driven rally to emerge

At present, the U.S.-Iran conflict is unlikely to show a clear endpoint in April or even throughout the second quarter. The flow of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has already fallen to about 3% of normal levels, and oil prices are trading in a high, range-bound band between $90 and $110 per barrel, which has become the benchmark scenario. The market has already basically priced in the “inflation shock,” but concerns about the “growth shock”—namely, that high oil prices may suppress global demand—will very likely become the next risk to watch. Against this backdrop, Hong Kong-listed stocks are in a triple-window period: recurring geopolitical risks, earnings verification in the reporting season, and capital-flow differentiation. Overall, the market is likely to maintain a choppy, differentiated pattern, making it difficult to see a trend-driven market. Investment strategy should shift from the past “buy everything for a rebound” approach to “earn from structures with certainty.”

On investment strategy, you should grasp three main lines: first, cyclicals, focusing on safe-haven assets such as gold and energy, as well as chemical products benefiting from supply tightening (such as methanol and polyethylene). Meanwhile, temporarily hold back on defense and military and key metals with more volatile movements. Second, finance and discretionary consumption. For finance (banks and insurance), valuations are at historical lows (PB around 0.6x), dividend yields exceed 4%, and the safety margin is strong—making them suitable as bottom-position allocations but not for chasing higher prices. For discretionary consumption, we suggest selecting auto-industry-chain names with strong export performance and earnings that have already been validated, while avoiding individual stocks that have issued profit warnings or whose growth has slowed. Third, the technology sector: prioritize companies with commercialization already delivered and high levels of earnings realization in AI application layers (such as the token economy). Internet bellwethers receiving net additional buying from southbound capital can serve as defensive bottom positions. Upstream hardware areas like semiconductors face excessive capital expenditures, earnings worries, and geopolitical risks. We recommend delaying left-side positioning and waiting for the turning point to become clear.

BOC Securities: Patience is still needed for short-term positions; reserve firepower for long-term positioning

The market has not yet moved out of the stormy period of geopolitical developments. Therefore, patience is still required for short-term holdings, while leaving capacity for long-term positioning.

In the short term, overseas markets’ risk appetite remains under pressure, and the market may further gradually price in stagflation—possibly even recessionary expectations. At present, in the Strait of Hormuz control dispute and the crude-oil supply-chain crisis, there has not been a solution that can be implemented. Market concerns about crude oil supply are still rising. With heightened geopolitical uncertainty compounded by rising energy costs, risk appetite and earnings expectations for developed-market equity assets represented by the U.S. stock market will continue to be suppressed, further pushing the logic of overseas risk-asset pricing from stagflation toward recession.

Soochow Securities: Find rebalancing opportunities and take a hedging strategy of “broad energy + tech narrow positioning”

Given the current situation’s high uncertainty, a balanced allocation approach is more prudent. We suggest hedging with a “broad energy + tech narrow positioning” strategy.

1. Broad energy: In historical global stagflation environments in overseas markets, broad energy has been the best-performing large-sector theme. This round of geopolitical conflict continues to intensify, driving oil prices higher and further catalyzing the “energy substitution” logic. Focus on areas such as power generation, coal-to-chemicals, power grid equipment, and more. In addition, China has already built globally leading structural advantages in the energy transition. The new energy sector itself also has solid industry-cycle support. Against the background of improving economics on the generation side and leading energy storage battery technology, focus on segments such as photovoltaic, energy storage, lithium batteries, wind power, and nuclear power.

2. Tech narrow positioning: In an environment where expectations for the inflation “central level” move upward, the technology stock sector may show differentiation—names “telling stories at high valuations” may face adjustments. But in the mainline, enterprises with moats, pricing power, and strong industry trend directions with earnings support are still expected to run ahead and pass through the cycle. Currently, within tech sub-sectors where supply-demand contradictions are prominent and which have earnings support, there is some allocation value.

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责任编辑：赵思远