The expectation of military escalation offsets the positive outlook on troop withdrawal, and Trump's speech triggers a market turmoil

ME News message: On April 2 (UTC+8), Trump delivered a rare prime-time national TV address from the White House. He tried to reassure the American public, whose financial markets have been roiled by the war and whose political approval ratings have been set back, claiming that the war with Iran is “very close” to the end of its run. However, as Trump hinted that military action could escalate in the short term, international spot gold and silver prices kept falling sharply, while U.S. and Brent crude oil continued to rise. As of press time, spot gold is down more than $100 intraday, spot silver is down more than 3%, and both U.S. and Brent crude oil are up more than 5%. This address highlights the immense pressure Trump faces: to clearly spell out the war’s objectives to the public and to find an “exit route” for a conflict that has entered its fifth week and is becoming increasingly difficult to control. Notably, in some respects, this speech was more like a mobilization at the start of the war rather than a summary one month after fighting began. At present, the Strait of Hormuz—accounting for one-fifth of global maritime oil transport—has essentially been under blockade since the outbreak of hostilities, becoming a major economic pain point. Although Trump continues to insist that energy disruptions will ease after the war, the government has yet to make clear how it will persuade Iran to restore passage through this strait. (Jin10) (Source: ODAILY)