This week I noticed the movement of major cryptocurrencies was quite interesting before the Fed decision. Bitcoin briefly touched $75,912 but immediately dropped back below $74,400, clearly showing that the rally was more driven by derivatives activity than new demand from buyers. But looking at the weekly chart, all major tokens have actually increased significantly. Bitcoin up 9%, Ether 11%, XRP 3%, Solana 5%, Dogecoin 2%, and BNB also up 3% in the past week. This is the broadest rally since before the Iran situation escalated.

What’s interesting is that institutional fund flow data remains solid. The spot Bitcoin ETF absorbed around $767 million over three consecutive weeks, a sharp reversal from outflows of more than $3 billion earlier this year. This pattern indicates that institutional confidence is starting to return to Bitcoin. Additionally, I see the performance gap between Bitcoin and gold has narrowed drastically. Where Bitcoin previously lagged far behind, now Bitcoin is outperforming gold by 13% since early March. Their correlation has also shifted from negative to positive, so the narrative of digital gold is starting to revive.

As the Fed meeting runs today through Wednesday, the market still considers the interest rate decision as a non-event because expectations remain at 3.5% to 3.75%. What will determine the crypto direction until the end of March are the dot plot and Powell’s press conference. With oil above $100 and the labor market beginning to weaken, the Fed is caught between two mandates. How Powell frames this tension could be a game changer for risk assets next week.