The expectation of military escalation offsets the positive outlook on troop withdrawal, and Trump's speech triggers a market volatility.

ME News message, April 2 (UTC+8). Trump delivered a rare prime-time national television address from the White House. He tried to reassure Americans whose financial markets have been roiled by the war and whose political approval ratings have slumped, claiming that the war with Iran is “very close” to coming to an end. However, as Trump hinted that military action could escalate in the short term, international spot gold and silver prices kept plunging, while U.S. and Brent crude oil continued to climb. As of the time of publication, spot gold fell by more than $100 intraday, spot silver dropped by more than 3%, and both U.S. and Brent crude oil rose by more than 5%. This speech highlights the enormous pressure Trump faces: to clearly state the war’s objectives to the public and to find an “exit route” for a conflict now in its fifth week that is becoming increasingly difficult to manage. Notably, the speech in some ways resembled a mobilization at the start of the war rather than a summary one month after the war began. Currently, the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for one-fifth of global maritime oil transport, has been essentially under blockade since the outbreak of hostilities, becoming a major economic pain point. Although Trump continues to insist that energy shocks will ease after the war, the government has not yet clarified how it will persuade Iran to reopen the strait. (Jin10) (Source: ODAILY)