Just now, a collective plunge! Oman, breaking news! The CTA shockwave is coming.

The shockwaves from rising oil prices are still evident!

In early Asia-Pacific trading, Brent crude oil futures extended their gains, reaching as high as $101.59 per barrel during the session. The price jumped 10% on the day. There are reports that Oman is evacuating ships from the Mina Al-Fahal oil terminal. A notice from the port agent said that Oman’s evacuation of ships from the terminal is a precautionary measure.

Driven by a sharp rebound in high oil prices, Asia-Pacific stock markets sold off collectively. By the early close, the Nikkei 225 index was down 1.5%, and the Topix index fell 1.6%. The losses in the Korean stock index, which had briefly turned positive in the morning, also widened to more than 1%. The Hong Kong market also rose then retreated. European stock futures were lower: Euro Stoxx 50 index futures down 1.1%, and Germany’s DAX index futures down by more than 1.2%.

Collective sell-off

This morning, international oil prices again broke above $100. Goldman Sachs forecasts that in the fourth quarter of 2026, Brent/WTI crude oil prices will be $71/$67 per barrel (previously forecast at $66/$62). As oil prices surged, global stock indices also fell sharply.

The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.5% this morning, and the Topix index fell 1.6%. Vietnam’s VN index dropped 1% to 1710.59 points. The Philippine stock index fell 1% to 6094.64 points. The Hang Seng Index was down more than 1% in early trading, and the Hang Seng Tech Index also followed with a decline of more than 1%. Tencent Music, Bilibili, and SenseTime all fell by more than 3%.

European stock futures were generally lower. Euro Stoxx 50 index futures fell 1.1%, while Germany’s DAX index futures and France’s CAC40 index futures were both down by more than 1.2%. U.S. stock index futures were all down by more than 1%, with the US2000 down nearly 2.5%.

Morgan Stanley strategists said that hedge funds are experiencing their largest drawdown since the market turmoil triggered by the tariff shock in April 2025, as the forced closing of crowded trades has hit these quick-profit funds. The report noted that since the outbreak of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, quantitative funds such as CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor strategies) have suffered what is said to be their most severe setback in nearly a year. Equity long-short hedge funds also sustained massive losses because they had overallocated positions in the European and Korean markets but were underallocated to software stocks. Reports said that last week, some of the world’s largest hedge funds, including Balyasny Asset Management, Castle, and Millennium Management, all posted losses.

At present, the biggest concern in the market is that the fighting in the Middle East could become prolonged. And if this situation occurs, the asset pricing logic will inevitably change as well. Galaxy Securities believes that in traditional pricing logic, U.S. Treasuries, the U.S. dollar, and core U.S. stocks are viewed as “safe assets,” but if the conflict lasts longer, rising energy costs, weakening U.S. fiscal constraints, and damage to strategic credit will shake this system. Gold, energy assets, non-U.S. dollar currencies, and markets with supply-chain resilience and geopolitical stability (such as China) may gain a new premium.

A major shock from Oman

This morning, oil prices suddenly surged again and pushed above $100, which may be related to Oman’s latest news.

According to people who received direct notifications from the port agent, Oman has evacuated all ships from the key oil export terminal—the Mina Al-Fahal port. This is a precautionary measure. The Mina Al-Fahal port is located outside the Strait of Hormuz, and is one of the few ports still able to transport Middle Eastern crude to global markets. However, Iran’s attacks in the region have made nearby waters unsafe. According to data intelligence company Kpler, Mina Al-Fahal port exports about 1 million barrels of Omani crude per day. Loading operations at the UAE’s Fujairah port, which is also outside the strait, are still ongoing, but some shipowners are avoiding the port due to the risk of attacks. The Jeddah port on the Saudi Red Sea coast can still export oil.

In addition, although U.S. President Trump claimed that the war would end soon, there are still no signs that the situation in the Middle East is easing. In an early-morning statement on the 12th, the Israel Defense Forces said that it had detected a new round of missiles launched from Iran toward Israel, with air defense systems intercepting them. This was the second time the IDF indicated that it detected Iranian missile launches toward Israel that day. Citing a report by The Times of Israel website on the 11th, as reported by Xinhua, the Israel Defense Forces’ Home Front Command said that due to attacks by Iran and Hezbollah, the situation in the coming days is expected to become more “difficult,” and Israel’s current civil defense restriction measures will last at least until the 14th.

Also worth noting is that although the International Energy Agency (IEA) released the largest-ever amount of oil from emergency reserves, oil prices still surged sharply. This seems inconsistent with market expectations. Some analysts believe that, on the one hand, even this emergency release during the Iran conflict is still not enough to offset the shock from the near-stoppage of oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, production disruptions in the Persian Gulf region, and insufficient crude oil inventories. On the other hand, this decision may backfire, because it could cause the market to form expectations that “the fighting will drag on for a long time.”