Gold and oil market strategy: Gold fluctuates within a wide range awaiting a breakout; crude oil targets the 120 level

Spot Gold:

April 7th, news: On Tuesday, during Asian trading hours, due to traders weighing U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest threat—destroying Iran’s infrastructure—and the long-term impact of war on economic growth, spot gold prices declined, continuing the decline from the previous two days. Gold prices fell as much as 0.7%, breaking below $4,620 per ounce, with a total decline of over 2% in the past two trading days. Trump set a deadline for Tuesday at 8 p.m. Eastern Time, demanding an agreement with Tehran, or else start attacking power plants and bridges, further escalating the conflict which has already caused global fuel supply tensions and heightened inflation concerns.

Technical analysis: Oversold rebound on technicals, with intense battles in key ranges. Gold broke below support at $4,680, triggering stop-loss selling pressure, quickly dropping to $4,599.7, touching the lower Bollinger Band support. The 4-hour chart shows MACD bottom divergence, RSI rebounding from oversold territory, indicating a short-term correction is needed. The current core range is $4,600–$4,700; a break above $4,700 would open upside space, while a break below $4,580 would confirm further correction. Focus for the day is on resistance at $4,700–$4,742, and support at $4,600–$4,550.

WTI Crude Oil:

News: The international crude oil market volatility has significantly increased. During Tuesday’s Asian session, WTI crude oil prices rose to around $115, hitting a new phase high. The main driver of this trend is the renewed tension in the Middle East, especially the ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. As one of the world’s most critical energy transportation routes, the strait accounts for about 20% of global seaborne crude oil shipments. Restrictions on passage directly amplify market concerns over supply disruptions.

Technical analysis: From a technical perspective, the rebound from last week’s rise on the 4-hour chart’s 100-period exponential moving average (EMA) and the breakthrough of the $120 psychological level suggest a short-term bullish bias. Despite recent volatility, the overall upward trend remains intact. Additionally, the latest MACD reading has rebounded, with lines returning to positive territory and histogram improving, indicating buyers have regained control after a brief loss of momentum. On the daily chart, recent price action has moved upward and successfully broken out of the previous correction range, favoring the bulls in the short term. Indicators show the price remains above the 20-day moving average, with a short-term bullish advantage. Focus for the day is on resistance at $119.0–$120.5, and support at $113.0/$110.0.

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