CITIC Futures: Gold's correction phase has halted and begun to recover, but the core pricing still revolves around oil prices, interest rates, and the US dollar.

Gold prices rebounded, mainly driven by two factors: first, the market is beginning to trade on the possibility of marginal easing in the Middle East situation, and the inflationary pressures caused by earlier oil price spikes have temporarily cooled; second, Powell’s statement that long-term inflation expectations remain under control and that policies are in a “wait-and-see” stance has reduced market concerns about the Federal Reserve tightening policies immediately due to supply shocks from the war, and the decline in U.S. Treasury yields has also correspondingly lowered the holding costs of gold. Currently, gold has not returned to a framework solely dominated by safe-haven logic; its price performance is still more influenced by the chain of “geopolitical disturbances—energy prices—Fed expectations,” so short-term recovery is plausible. However, if disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz re-emerge or oil prices surge again, gold may still face repeated fluctuations. (CITIC Futures)