Yesterday, there was a liquidation event, but based on the following points of the short-side logic, I am continuing to short today.

1. The controlling party shows clear signs of pushing the price up to dump. On-chain data indicates that about 10 hours before the price started to rise, two addresses associated with the project team deposited approximately 18.58 million RAVE tokens into the exchange, a typical manipulation tactic to reduce slippage and facilitate subsequent dumping. Meanwhile, a multi-signature address withdrew about 29.78 million RAVE tokens from the CEX within 7 hours, further intensifying the appearance of supply tightening, but in reality, it’s creating a liquidity illusion to attract follow-up traders.
2. Chips are highly concentrated, and the risk of whale control is extremely high. A single whale address controls up to 78% of the circulating RAVE tokens, while the team and early supporters’ combined 22.5% lock-up has just been unlocked. This means the market’s circulating supply is quite thin, with chips held by very few people. Once these low-cost chips start to sell off, the price will face a cliff-like decline.
3. Technical indicators have already issued a serious overbought warning. RAVE surged from $1.395 to a recent high of $2.288 within 24 hours, with a volatility of 66.9%, and trading volume increased by over 1000% compared to the previous day. However, the RSI indicator has soared into the overbought zone of 83-96. On the 4-hour chart, RSI has shown a bearish divergence: the price hit a new high, but RSI formed a lower high, a typical momentum exhaustion pattern. Leverage interest has surged, with a large amount of long leverage positions piled up. Once a pullback occurs, it could trigger a chain of liquidations.
4. Lacking fundamental support, purely speculative hype. The recent surge was not driven by any official announcement or major news catalyst, and during the same period, the total crypto market cap only increased by 0.85%. RAVE’s rise is entirely independent of the broader market. Such pump-and-dump driven by trading volume and leverage is usually unsustainable. Once buying momentum weakens, liquidity could vanish overnight, and the price is likely to revert to the initial level. Analysts have warned that RAVE’s current pattern closely resembles the ARIA model, which surged 205% in 24 hours before crashing.
Today’s RAVE surge is essentially a speculative bubble created by whales exploiting low liquidity and leverage. The controlling party has already prepared ample exit strategies at high levels. The chip structure is extremely risky, and the technical outlook is severely overbought. The risk of chasing longs far exceeds potential rewards, and shorting at the current price offers an excellent risk-reward ratio.