The true cost of the 40-day war—over 4,000 deaths, 4 million displaced

When Islamabad’s negotiators argued over control of the strait in the conference room, the numbers outside the room would not disappear because of a ceasefire. The latest data released by the World Health Organization on April 9 shows that since February 28, the US and Israeli large-scale military strikes against Iran have resulted in nearly 2,400 deaths in Iran, more than 32,000 injuries, and another 3.2 million displaced people. Adding casualties in Lebanon and Israel, this conflict has caused more than 4,000 deaths, over 40,000 injuries, and more than 4.2 million people forced to flee their homes.

1. Iran: nearly 2,400 dead, 3.2 million displaced

WHO data shows that US and Israeli military strikes have caused nearly 2,400 deaths in Iran, more than 32,000 injuries, and another 3.2 million displaced people. According to figures previously released by the Iranian side, more than 81,000 civilian facilities have been damaged, including 498 schools, 275 hospitals and health institutions. The number of injured people in Iran under 18 has reached about 1,900.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk previously said the United States and Israel are increasingly striking Iran’s densely populated residential areas and are trying to destroy Iran’s civilian infrastructure. Among them, strikes targeting nuclear facilities are described as “incomprehensibly reckless acts.”

2. Lebanon: over 1,700 dead, one million lose their homes

The fighting is not limited to within Iran; Lebanon has also paid a heavy price. WHO data shows that US and Israeli military actions have resulted in more than 1,700 deaths and nearly 6,000 injuries in Lebanon.

More than 1 million Lebanese have lost their homes due to Israeli airstrikes, including more than 130,000 people placed in government-designated shelters. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri has announced April 9 as a national day of mourning, to honor innocent civilians who were killed in Israeli airstrikes.

3. Israel and U.S. forces: 24 dead, over 7,000 injured

Israel has also had to pay a price. According to WHO data, Israel has 24 deaths and over 7,000 injuries. In addition, according to data previously released by the U.S. Department of Defense, a total of 365 U.S. service members were injured in military operations against Iran, with 13 fatalities.

4. A chain reaction in energy markets

The war’s impact on global energy markets cannot be ignored. After the ceasefire news broke, international oil prices temporarily dropped sharply. The WTI benchmark crude contract fell 14.56% to $96.5 per barrel; the Brent benchmark crude contract fell 11.85% to $96.32 per barrel. However, several European financial institutions predict that international oil prices will be unable to return to the levels before the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict in the short term. ING Group said the ceasefire news has, to a certain extent, eased market concerns about long-term disruptions to oil supply, but future oil-price trends will depend on whether negotiations can reach a lasting agreement and whether strait shipping levels can return to normal.

In its April 10 report “Asia Development Outlook 2026,” the Asian Development Bank warned that fighting in the Middle East is increasing global geopolitical risk, and that economic downside risks for developing economies in Asia-Pacific are continuing to rise. The report points out that if transportation of fertilizer raw materials and petrochemical products is disrupted, it will not only drive up food prices, but could even affect the global semiconductor industry.

5. Political costs

At the political level, Trump’s approval rating had fallen to 35% by the end of March, the lowest point since his return to the White House. Anti-war demonstrations sweeping across the United States have spread through 50 states, with opposition to the war growing louder. More than 20 lawmakers from both parties, including Senate Minority Leader Schumer, previously called on cabinet members to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove Trump.

2,400 lives of Iranians, 1,700 lives of Lebanese, 3.2 million displaced Iranians, more than 1 million Lebanese who lost their homes, and more than 40,000 injured—these numbers make up the war’s most real face. When negotiators in Islamabad’s conference room debate control of the strait and the issue of uranium enrichment, the lives that have been lost and the homes destroyed outside the room will not be restored by a ceasefire agreement. The 40 days of war leave scars that may take decades to heal.

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