After the geopolitical tensions at the start of the week, markets have stabilized somewhat, but the bond side still appears uneasy.

Bitcoin has followed an interesting path this week. On Monday, as news of İran-İsrail çatışması haberleri caused oil prices to rise rapidly, BTC also came under selling pressure and fell to as low as 65,000. However, once the U.S. signaled that it would intervene quickly, markets eased. BTC is now trading around $73,000, having rebounded by approximately 8-10% on a weekly basis. Stock markets, similarly, started to recover after the low point hit on Tuesday.

But the interesting part is that the bond market is still staying on edge. The 10-year yields rose from 3.93% to 4.15%, and the 2-year yields also jumped to nearly the 3.60% level. What does this mean? Investors are reassessing inflation risk and do not expect the Fed to cut rates. There are concerns that energy shocks stemming from the conflict will create inflationary pressure in the long run. Indeed, according to CME Fed fonlama vadeli işlemlerine göre, this year the probability of two 25-basis-point rate cuts has fallen from 80% to below 50%.

There are also some developments on the technical side. U.S. economic data continues to remain strong. The ISM Services index released on Tuesday rose to 56.1, and the ADP employment report showed 63,000 jobs created, the strongest figure since July 2025. This supports the idea that the Fed is moving away from rate cuts.

Another noteworthy point: despite SpaceX reporting an approximately $5 billion loss in 2025, Coinbase Prime custody holds about 8,285 bitcoins with a value of roughly $603 million. The continued increase in institutional players’ crypto positions is an interesting signal for the market. In particular, such stances, compared with alternative investment tools like 20 million in interest income, demonstrate the institutional side’s confidence in digital assets.

The upcoming non-farm payroll report on Friday could create new volatility. If the data comes in above expectations, bond yields could rise even further and put pressure on cryptocurrencies and stocks. For now, it looks as if markets have priced in geopolitical risk, but we may not yet have fully seen the real impact of energy shocks.