Global chemical markets for Apr 27–May 2 show geopolitics still outweighing the long-cycle oversupply story.

📌 The chemical market saw no fresh shock last week, but Middle East tensions and the risk of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz remained the dominant driver. Brent crude staying near $108–110/bbl kept pushing feedstock, logistics, and raw material costs higher, with pressure spreading from petrochemicals to fertilizers.
💡 The key point is that price strength is no longer limited to oil and gas. U.S. ethane-based ethylene margins jumped from about 7 to 23 cents/lb, urea and ammonia stayed firm, Qatar sulphur climbed to a high level near $740/t FOB, while MEG May ACP rebounded to $810/t CFR Asia as Middle East supply tightened.
🔎 Regional divergence is becoming clearer. The U.S. benefits from cheaper feedstock and lower exposure to Middle East naphtha, giving producers such as LyondellBasell, Dow, and Gulf Coast players more room to improve margins. Asia and Europe, by contrast, face a double squeeze from high energy costs, tighter supply, and still-weak downstream demand.
⚠️ Price hikes from BASF, Dow, Eastman, and Sun Chemical taking effect from early May show that higher costs are being passed down to end-use sectors. This matters for PU foams, coatings, automotive, electronics, polyester, textiles, and packaging, as methanol, MDI/TDI, PC, PET, and MEG are all being pulled into a new volatility cycle.
⏱️ Southeast Asia needs closer attention in the near term. MEG tightness could directly affect polyester and textile chains in Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and India, while sulphur shortages add pressure to Indonesia’s nickel supply chain. If this persists, regional buyers may prioritize long-term contracts over spot exposure.
✅ Still, the picture is not fully bullish. China’s overcapacity, especially in olefins, polymers, and some commodity segments, remains a structural risk. If Hormuz tensions ease and supply normalizes quickly, the geopolitical premium could fade and margins may return to their old pressure points.
📊 The May–Q2 outlook still points to elevated and volatile prices in fertilizers, sulphur, MEG, methanol, and petrochemicals. The U.S. may keep a short-term advantage, while Asia and Europe face less predictable input costs. Last week was therefore not just about higher prices, but about a broader repricing of global chemical supply-chain risk.
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