Gate 2025 Year-End Community Celebration #Bitcoin Six-Day Rally Bitcoin Returns to $90,000 Level, But Market Confidence Remains Insufficient

Bitcoin price has reclaimed the $90,000 milestone, yet the foundation of this rally remains fragile. Despite the price recovery, traders overall maintain a defensive stance, and the derivatives market has yet to demonstrate sustained optimistic sentiment.

As Bitcoin rebounded this week, the cryptocurrency derivatives market showed almost no clear signals capable of supporting a sustained uptrend. Even though Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) re-attracted capital inflows last week, the overall market structure has not improved in sync.

The current price recovery appears more like a temporary respite rather than the beginning of a new uptrend cycle. In key sentiment-reflecting areas—Bitcoin perpetual and quarterly futures contracts—most trading remains concentrated in near-term contracts. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, long viewed as an important indicator of institutional investor participation, currently shows weak demand for long-dated contracts.

According to a report released Tuesday by K33 Research research head Vetle Lunde, despite slight signs of improved market sentiment, the overall tone remains cautious, with investors adopting a wait-and-see approach despite recent gains. The report indicates that spot trading volume, volatility, and derivatives leverage levels are all hovering near lows seen before December last year, with 86% of open interest concentrated in the nearest-to-expiry contracts.

Meanwhile, the funding rate for perpetual futures remains at relatively low levels, reflecting limited long positions in the market and insufficient warming of risk appetite.

However, the selling pressure that persisted for weeks at the end of 2025 reversed in the initial trading days of this year, driving Bitcoin prices higher. On January 5, Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest single-day net inflow since October 7 last year and ranked in the top 10 largest single-day capital inflows since January 1, 2025.

If Bitcoin strengthens further, it may reactivate futures trading activity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. As the spread between spot and futures prices widens, basis trading—a strategy that profits from this price difference—is poised to become attractive again.

In the meantime, Bitcoin's weak performance relative to gold and stock markets has also sparked market discussions about the long-term value of crypto assets. According to a report released Monday by Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodities strategist Mike McGlone, Bitcoin's declining volatility, particularly when compared to gold and risk assets, may suggest that the most explosive phase of crypto assets has gradually passed.