#预测市场 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin breaking 100k on Polymarket plummet from earlier optimistic expectations to 10%, my mind flashed back to the tail end of the 2017 bull market. Back then, everyone was talking about $50k, $100k, and even more outrageous figures. Market sentiment was pushed to the extreme, until reality gave everyone a slap in the face with a prolonged bear market.

Today's scenario feels somewhat familiar. Prediction of 95k probability at 32%, probability of breaking below 80k at 18% — what does this data reflect? It reflects that market participants' expectations are shifting from extreme optimism toward caution. History tells us that when most people begin to question a seemingly certain target, it often means the inflection point of the cycle is already within sight.

However, I should note that prediction markets are a double-edged sword. They reflect current market consensus, but consensus changes. I've witnessed countless times when things deemed "impossible" ultimately happened, and "inevitable" expectations turned into bubbles overnight. The key is that a probability dropping to 10% doesn't mean it's impossible; rather, it means participants are repricing the cost of this possibility.

In the remaining 10 days, we'll see how the story unfolds. But regardless, this very shift from optimism to caution is enough to make one reflect on the characteristics of this cycle.