#比特币宏观表现 Seeing the Q4 drop of more than 22%, I have to tell you the truth. This rebound to 90k certainly caught a lot of people's attention, but if you look carefully at the logic behind it, you'll know this is not a good sign.

Technical correction and genuine capital inflow are two different things. The earlier drop was too sharp, and the rebound is just relieving oversold pressure. This kind of rebound is most likely to deceive people. Look, we're still 30% lower than the beginning of the year—what does this tell you? It tells you that no new capital has genuinely turned bullish on this market all year.

The seasonal factor is particularly worth being cautious about. In previous years, Q4 was an active period for Bitcoin, but in years with tight liquidity, this "pattern" becomes a trap. Now the market frequently gives back gains during US trading sessions, indicating that many people are still stuck at higher prices and are eager to cut positions at any minor rebound. Under such circumstances, short-term volatility risk is substantial.

My suggestion is don't get blinded by this minor rebound. A real trend reversal requires volume support and genuine macroeconomic improvements, not just the technical chart playing with itself. Before confirming a bottom signal, you need to remain cautious. Living long is more important than living fast.