Economic Half Hour 260318

Last week, the market showed clear signs of gradual recovery. Spot buying pressure rebounded, ETF capital continued to flow in, and investor profitability slightly improved. However, on-chain trading activity remained sluggish, and the futures market maintained cautious positioning, indicating that overall confidence has not fully recovered. After a powerful eight-day rally, Bitcoin is currently at a critical decision point under the large-cycle bearish structure—the result of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting this morning will directly determine whether this sharp rebound correction reaches a local top or launches an assault toward the $80,000 mark.

The key resistance zone above is located between $74,400 and $85,000, which is a dense distribution of trapped shorts since last year and also the life-or-death defense line for short-term bears. Institutional capital faces significant selling pressure in this zone. BTC failed multiple times to break through $74,400 yesterday, indicating weakening intent among bulls to chase higher prices. Regarding support below, $71,500 to $72,200 is the first defense line for bulls, with $72,000 being the current psychological midpoint. If prices break below this level today due to macro headwinds, it could trigger further decline. If $69,000 is broken, it may trigger panic selling and confirm that this eight-day rally is formally concluded.

Operationally, a defensive mindset should be maintained today, and chasing longs is not recommended. Those shorting from the left side should pay attention to opportunities when price rallies to around $74,400–$74,800 before the meeting. Particularly noteworthy is that current long and short positions are extremely crowded—the market could experience "dual-direction pinning" before the meeting to liquidate leverage. Regardless of the outcome, please strictly adhere to stop losses and avoid heavy betting before the direction becomes clear.

ETH's recent high of 2385 may become a phase resistance level, with support below at 2295. If Bitcoin's first defense line breaks, it will likely follow with a decline.