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Private Credit Market Default Rate Rises to 9.2%, Liquidity Concerns Intensify

2026-03-19 17:53:29

News from Gate, March 19 — According to Fitch Ratings data, default rates in the private credit market are projected to rise to 9.2% in 2025, up from 8.1% last year and surpassing levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis. The private credit market currently stands at $1.8 trillion and is facing liquidity challenges. High interest rate environments are increasing borrowing costs for small businesses. Companies with EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) below $100 million are struggling under floating-rate debt (debt with interest rates that fluctuate with the market), with default rates among small borrowers reaching 15.8%. Despite the rising default rates, losses remain controlled as lenders prefer restructuring over bankruptcy, often recovering close to the original loan amount. However, the secondary market for this debt—where issued bonds are resold—is limited, estimated at only $100 billion, posing liquidity risks and causing some funds to face redemption pressures. As the private credit market expands, its liquidity mismatch and reliance on flexible financing are being scrutinized, potentially exposing vulnerabilities if economic conditions worsen.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third-party sources and is for reference only. It does not represent the views or opinions of Gate and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Virtual asset trading involves high risk. Please do not rely solely on the information on this page when making decisions. For details, see the Disclaimer.

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