Analysis: The end of the government shutdown has not eliminated uncertainty, and the US Treasury Volatility Index has jumped to a one-month high.

On November 13, U.S. Treasury prices were largely stable, but volatility indicators suggested that significant fluctuations could occur in the coming days, following the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury remained robust at 4.08% on Thursday, while swap data linked to policy meeting dates showed that the money market had mixed expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed next month. However, the ICE BofA MOVE Index, which measures bond market volatility, has surged to its highest level in a month after recently hitting a four-year low, indicating that a large amount of economic data due to be released by the government may prompt market actions. Investors in this $30 trillion market have been waiting for the resumption of government economic reports to glean clues about where the Fed will take interest rates at its final meeting of the year. Michiel Tukker, a senior European interest rate strategist at ING, stated that given the market has not fully determined the Fed's next steps, any new inflation and employment data could drive fluctuations at the front end of the curve. (Jin10)