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Vitalik's warning that "Quantum Computing will break encryption algorithms by 2028" has sparked intense debate within the community, with research progress being the key.
On November 20, Vitalik Buterin issued a warning at the Devconnect conference, stating that Quantum Computing could break Elliptic Curve Cryptography before the 2028 U.S. presidential election. This statement sparked intense debate within the community: crypto KOL Charles Edwards mentioned that mainstream experts are assessing the risks of Quantum impact on Bitcoin ahead of time. Vitalik's three-year forecast also confirms this. The crypto industry can no longer ignore this risk. Physics expert David M. Antonelli expressed opposing views, stating that even the most optimistic predictions ( IBM, Google, Quantinuum ) expect that by 2030 there may only be a few thousand physical Quantum Bits, rather than millions of logical Quantum Bits. Additionally, Tom Lee also shared a report regarding Vitalik's warning about “Quantum Computing Threatening Encryption Algorithms.” Although there is controversy over whether the threat of Quantum Computing to the crypto industry can materialize by 2028, the community generally believes that based on the current pace of research progress, Quantum Computing will indeed threaten Encryption Algorithms in the foreseeable future.