#加密市场反弹 Rebound from dips and emotional recovery: Bitcoin focuses on $70,000

This morning, the market experienced its strongest single-day rally in recent times. Bitcoin briefly broke through the $70,000 mark, with an intraday increase of over 9%, ending its three consecutive declines and posting the largest single-day gain since February 6. Ethereum also surged more than 12%, breaking through $2,100.
The main reasons for this rally include:
Strong bottom-fishing sentiment: After a significant correction earlier, the market has accumulated a strong demand for "buying the dip," and this rally is largely seen as a technical rebound.
External pressure easing: The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on tariff authority temporarily alleviated concerns over escalating trade tensions, stabilizing the stock market and transmitting risk sentiment to the crypto market.
Market maker selling pressure doubts dissipate: Market rumors suggest that market maker Jane Street has suspended its fixed-time sell mode due to litigation issues, which is interpreted as a potential weakening of selling pressure, boosting short-term confidence. U.S. stock linkage effect: Cboe's launch of 7x24-hour stock trading caused a 13.52% surge; Circle's better-than-expected earnings report led to a 35% jump. These positive performances also lifted crypto market sentiment.
Policy environment: Increasing global regulatory divergence
On the policy front, a clear "polarization" pattern is emerging, which has far-reaching impacts on investors in different regions.
China (negative): The latest notice jointly issued by the People's Bank of China and eight other departments reiterates a strict stance against virtual currency-related activities, covering the entire chain from trading and mining to RWA tokenization, with strict restrictions on services provided from overseas to domestic. For investors in mainland China, this means compliance risks remain very high.
USA (positive): The regulatory environment is experiencing a major shift. News indicates that the Federal Reserve plans to remove the "reputational risk" review barrier for banks entering crypto businesses, while the SEC intends to significantly reduce the capital requirement for brokerages holding stablecoins from 100% to 2%, almost clearing the way for institutional entry. This suggests the U.S. is trying to establish its dominance in global crypto regulation and open the door for compliant institutional funds.
EU (neutral to slightly bearish): The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) issued a warning, clarifying that "perpetual contracts" in cryptocurrencies may fall under the scope of Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which are subject to strict leverage restrictions. This directly impacts trading venues offering high-leverage derivatives.
Hong Kong/UK (positive): Hong Kong's stablecoin licensing system is about to be implemented. The UK FCA has also launched a stablecoin regulatory sandbox, providing a pathway for compliant innovation.
On-chain data: Market in a defensive recovery phase
On-chain data reveals the true health of the market, which is still in a "defensive stage":
Profit-taking: The Bitcoin MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator has fallen from extreme highs to near long-term average levels, indicating a reset in market valuation and the squeezing out of excessive bubbles.
Selling pressure easing but insufficient capital inflow: Although aggressive selling has slowed, the realized market cap, representing new capital inflows, continues to decline, with about $33 billion net outflow over the past few months. This suggests the market is stabilizing mainly through reduced selling rather than large inflows of new money.
Massive unrealized losses: Data shows approximately 9 million Bitcoins (45% of total circulating supply) are in unrealized loss. This means that whenever prices rebound near these investors' cost basis, there could be forced selling pressure, which is a key factor suppressing the sustainability of the rally.
Overall assessment and operational suggestions
Overall, today’s market is a combination of "short-term emotional recovery" and "medium-term structural pressure." The rebound is strong, but a reversal still needs confirmation.
General judgment:
Short-term: After being oversold, the market is mainly driven by bottom-fishing funds and a news vacuum, with resistance expected around $70,000-$72,000. Whether it can hold above $70,000 is crucial for the continuation of the rebound.
Medium-term: On-chain data (45% unrealized losses, realized cap outflows) and policy divergence (regulatory conflicts between China and the U.S.) suggest that the market is unlikely to turn around overnight. It is most likely to undergo sideways consolidation in the bottom area, trading time for space.