Quantum technology enters the industrialization verification phase: a new stage has begun

Writing: Zhang Feng

1. The wave of quantum technology industrialization has arrived, but how to break through technical bottlenecks and governance gaps?

Recent reports from multiple financial media outlets highlight that China has demonstrated capabilities comparable to top international levels in the three core sectors of quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum precision measurement, and is entering a critical “industrialization verification period.” This description paints a grand picture of moving from laboratory frontiers to industrial applications.

However, when we examine this wave of development, a core question emerges: at this key node where quantum technology shifts from “technological breakthroughs” to “industrialization verification,” are we fully prepared to address the underlying uncertainties, the ambiguity of industrialization pathways, and the new governance and compliance challenges that come with it? Especially against the backdrop of disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence and blockchain intertwining, the industrialization process of quantum technology is far more than a technical issue; it is a systemic project involving technological routes, business models, capital allocation, and risk management. While public opinion generally focuses on technological breakthroughs and industry prospects, discussions about the “deep waters” and “hidden reefs” that may be encountered during the verification period are still insufficient.

2. Multiple driving forces intertwine, pushing quantum technology from the laboratory to the forefront of industry

The acceleration of quantum technology industrialization results from multiple factors working together. The primary driver stems from high-level national strategic emphasis and systematic planning. As one of the six future industries explicitly outlined in the “14th Five-Year Plan,” quantum technology is positioned as a key support for China to seize future technological and industrial dominance. This top-level design has led to concentrated policy, funding, and resource investments, forming a development pattern of “central coordination and local synergy.”

Secondly, the continuous accumulation of scientific research strength provides a foundation for industrialization. Leading research institutions such as the University of Science and Technology of China and the Shenzhen International Quantum Research Institute have achieved world-class breakthroughs in areas like optical clock precision (error less than 1 second over 30 billion years) and quantum prototype computers, laying the groundwork for technology transfer.

Furthermore, active participation by market entities constitutes an important driver. Leading companies like GuoDun Quantum, GuoYi Quantum, and YuanYuan Quantum have emerged, initially forming a pattern of “R&D clusters driving industry development.” Lastly, the focus of capital markets is evolving—from early, relatively broad “betting on tracks” models to more refined investment logic centered on the “three hard and three soft” (core components like hardware, software, algorithms) across the entire industry chain, providing more sustainable and rational financial support for industrialization.

3. Building a three-dimensional development path of “technology-industry-ecosystem” coordinated advancement

Faced with the complex challenges of the industrialization verification period, a single-dimensional breakthrough is no longer sufficient. It is necessary to establish a comprehensive system of strategies that promote technological breakthroughs, industry cultivation, and ecosystem construction in tandem.

On the technological front, focus must remain on core bottlenecks. For example, quantum computing still requires fundamental breakthroughs in the number of qubits, their quality (coherence time, fidelity), and error correction capabilities. This demands sustained long-term investment in basic research, encouraging deep integration of industry, academia, research, and application, and accelerating the engineering and product validation of laboratory results.

At the industry level, differentiated development paths should be clarified. Quantum communication can prioritize demonstration applications in fields with high security requirements such as finance and government; quantum precision measurement can target specific scenarios like medical imaging and geological exploration; quantum computing must deeply integrate with classical computing and artificial intelligence (AI), exploring “killer applications” in drug development, materials science, and financial modeling. Ecosystem construction should focus on creating open, collaborative innovation platforms. Leading enterprises should open part of their R&D capabilities to attract more small and medium-sized enterprises and developers to participate in application innovation, forming a complete industry chain of hardware, software, algorithms, and application services. Additionally, strengthening cooperation and exchanges with top international teams will help maintain openness and foresight in technological routes.

4. Quantum industry will reshape multiple sectors and deeply couple with AI and blockchain

Once substantive progress is made in quantum technology industrialization, its impact will be profound and multi-dimensional. First, it will directly empower and reshape key industries. Quantum computing is expected to significantly accelerate the design cycle of new drugs and materials; quantum communication could establish the next-generation absolutely secure information network infrastructure; quantum precision measurement can bring revolutionary improvements to medical diagnostics, navigation, and positioning.

Second, and more disruptively, quantum technology will deeply couple with existing frontier technologies like artificial intelligence and blockchain. Quantum computing may provide unprecedented computational power for training more complex and powerful AI models, while AI algorithms can be used to optimize quantum system control and error correction.

In blockchain, the potential threat of quantum computers to current mainstream cryptographic algorithms is prompting the development of post-quantum cryptography; at the same time, quantum communication technology may offer new security solutions for distributed ledgers. This technological fusion will give rise to entirely new interdisciplinary research fields and industry forms.

However, it is important to view the impact of industrialization cautiously, as current assessments are largely based on linear extrapolations of technological development and optimistic expectations. The practical thresholds for quantum technology remain high, and the timeline for realizing large-scale economic and social benefits is still highly uncertain.

5. Technical uncertainty, capital bubbles, and lagging governance form three major concerns

While optimistic about the promising future of quantum technology, we must also recognize and confront multiple risks on its industrialization path. The primary risk stems from the high uncertainty of the technology itself. Quantum systems are extremely fragile; maintaining their stability and scalability is a global challenge. Competition over technological routes (such as superconducting, ion traps, photonic) has not yet settled, risking “betting on the wrong horse.” During the verification period, unforeseen technical bottlenecks may slow progress or even cause stagnation.

Second, there is a risk of capital overheating and bubbles. As the most promising future industry, the quantum field has attracted substantial capital inflows. With the industrialization prospects still not fully clear, excessive capital chasing may lead to inflated valuations, redundant construction, and resource misallocation. If technological progress falls short of expectations, market volatility and loss of confidence could ensue.

Finally, and most overlooked, is the lag in governance and regulatory frameworks. Quantum technology, especially quantum computing, poses fundamental challenges to existing information security systems. It could break widely used public key cryptography, threatening financial, defense, and infrastructure security.

Moreover, the integration of quantum technology with biotechnology and AI may trigger new ethical and security issues. Yet, relevant laws, regulations, technical standards, risk assessments, and regulatory systems are almost nonexistent. This “tech rush and governance lag” situation constitutes a major hidden danger for long-term development.

6. The next five years will be a critical period of differentiation and integration, calling for rationality and regulation

Looking ahead to the next five to ten years, the industrialization process of quantum technology will show several clear trends.

First, sector differentiation will intensify. Among the three core sectors, quantum precision measurement may lead in achieving large-scale commercial deployment due to its relatively mature technology and close integration with application scenarios. Quantum communication will establish demonstration networks in high-security-demand fields. Quantum computing will go through a long phase of “dedicated machines” leading and “general-purpose machines” catching up, with the most prolonged and complex industrialization path.

Second, technological integration will become mainstream. Pure “quantum companies” will decrease, with more enterprises focusing on promoting “quantum + classical computing,” “quantum + AI,” and “quantum + blockchain” integrated solutions. Cross-disciplinary innovation capable of solving practical industry pain points will be key to competitiveness.

Third, capital investment will become more rational and focused. The capital market will shift from chasing concepts to deepening value in industry chain segments, paying more attention to core technological barriers, engineering capabilities, and clear commercialization pathways. Fourth, and critically, governance and compliance issues will rapidly heat up. As technology matures and pilot applications expand, discussions on data security, algorithm ethics, technology export controls, and global quantum governance rules will become urgent. Establishing forward-looking risk research and adaptive regulatory frameworks will become a new battleground for countries vying for influence in the quantum era.

In summary, entering the industrialization verification period marks a new stage full of hope and challenges. We must have confidence and patience in scientific exploration and industrial innovation, while remaining sober and vigilant about potential risks. Promoting healthy development of quantum technology requires not only continuous efforts from scientists and engineers but also joint efforts from policymakers, industry, investment, and legal sectors to build an ecosystem that encourages innovation, prevents risks, and ensures orderly regulation. Only through synchronized technological breakthroughs, industrial applications, and governance development can we truly harness this wave of technology capable of transforming the future.