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ACDC Report Suggests Insider Edge in Polymarket Defense Markets
ACDC analyzed more than 435,000 settled Polymarket contracts worth $54.4 billion in cumulative volume and found that low-probability bets in military and defense markets won at unusually high rates. The report said similar longshot bets usually win about 14% of the time in political markets, but military-linked contracts topped 50% in some cases. In a June 2025 case study on U.S. strikes on Iran, 19 longshot bets placed before the June 21 strike produced about $1.8 million in profits across eight wallets.