Data: For the short term, sell pressure from Bitcoin short-term holders is still dominant; although ETF funds have seen inflows, a trend reversal cannot be confirmed.

ME News message, July 12 (UTC+8). CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler said in a post that its latest release, the “Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Pressure Model,” shows that the current buy/sell pressure from short-term holders is cooling slightly, but buying strength still remains dominant. The model measures changes in the market’s long/short power by comparing realized buy pressure with sell pressure from short-term holders. During bear-market phases, this indicator can serve as a contrarian signal: when prices approach local lows, buyers are typically more active; when prices approach local highs, sell-side pressure rises. Over the past 24 hours, the model has not yet produced a trend-switching signal. The latest hourly data shows the buy pressure score is 28.57, slightly down from 28.98 the previous day; the sell pressure score is 22.62, slightly down from 22.68 earlier. At present, buyers are still ahead of sellers by about 5.94 percentage points. Overall, buy-side pressure in the market has cooled somewhat, but short-term holders still maintain a buyer advantage.

Meanwhile, funding conditions in the Bitcoin ETF market have shown a slight improvement. Against the backdrop of eight consecutive weeks of outflows, the ETF market has recently recorded around $197.4 million in net inflows. However, Adler pointed out that this scale is not enough to confirm a reversal in the trend of institutional demand. ETF 30-day capital flow momentum is still deeply negative, at approximately -$4.73 billion, and the cumulative capital size has also fallen from a peak of about $62 billion to around $51 billion, indicating that short-term capital has improved, but sustained institutional buying demand has not fully recovered.

Axel Adler expects that next week the market will see multiple important data releases and events, including further developments in the situation in the Middle East, the impact of the escalation of the Iran–U.S. conflict on energy supply, and U.S. major bank earnings, remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Warsh, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI), the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, retail sales, and real estate market data, among others. (Source: ChainCatcher)