2026 Bitcoin Price Forecast: JPMorgan and Fidelity Bullish, Targeting Up to 250,000

Bitcoin trading prices below $100,000, and the market expectation of doubling to $200,000 by the end of the year has fallen short. However, Wall Street analysts believe that 2026 Bitcoin is merely a delay in progress rather than a trend reversal. JPMorgan forecasts that Bitcoin could reach $170,000 in 2026, while Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is optimistic, predicting it could hit $150,000 to $200,000 early next year, and surge to $250,000 before the end of 2026.

The Logic Behind Wall Street’s $250,000 Prediction

Fundstrat research head Tom Lee’s forecast for 2026 Bitcoin is based on two core drivers. First is the irreversible trend of institutional adoption. Many large investment institutions and Wall Street banks continue to buy Bitcoin regardless of price fluctuations. BlackRock’s iBIT assets have approached $100 billion, and Bitcoin ETFs from Fidelity, Invesco, and others continue to attract capital. This institutional-level buying provides structural support, contrasting sharply with the retail-led bull market of 2017.

Second is the trend of corporate balance sheet adoption. More and more tech companies are beginning to include Bitcoin on their balance sheets. MicroStrategy (MSTR) has accumulated over 400,000 Bitcoin, becoming the largest corporate holder. If this trend spreads to more publicly listed companies, it will create sustained and substantial buying demand. Tom Lee believes that as corporate financial allocations shift from “testing the waters” to “standard practice,” Bitcoin will experience exponential growth in demand, which is the core logic behind the $250,000 prediction.

JPMorgan’s $170,000 forecast is relatively conservative but also acknowledges strong institutional demand. The bank’s analysts point out that even if Bitcoin retraces nearly 30% from its all-time high, financial institutions continue to buy. This “buy the dip” behavior indicates that institutions see current prices as a good allocation opportunity rather than a risk warning. More critically, news that the U.S. government plans to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve by 2026 could provide a national-level endorsement for Bitcoin if implemented.

The Three Pillars Supporting the $250,000 Bitcoin in 2026

Continued Institutional Buying: Bitcoin ETF assets surpass $100 billion, with giants like BlackRock and Fidelity experiencing daily net inflows

Corporate Balance Sheet Adoption: MicroStrategy’s model spreading, with tech companies viewing Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation

National Strategic Reserves: The U.S. government plans to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, providing sovereign-level demand support

Warnings and Variables of the Four-Year Halving Cycle

However, whether Bitcoin can reach $250,000 in 2026 depends on the historical pattern of the four-year halving cycle. Bitcoin typically follows a four-year cycle of volatility, with the bull phase starting at the halving event, lasting 12 to 18 months, followed by a bear market correction. The fourth halving occurred in April 2024, over 18 months ago. Based on historical experience, the current phase is in the late bull market or possibly about to enter a bear market.

Historical data offers clear reference points. After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin reached a cycle high of $1,100 in November 2013. Post-2016 halving, it hit $19,800 in December 2017. After the 2020 halving, it reached a record high of $69,000 in November 2021. Each bull market lasts about 12 to 18 months, followed by a long bear market of 2 to 3 years. If this pattern continues, the current bull market may be nearing its end, and 2026 could be in a bear market or bottoming phase rather than reaching new highs.

However, this cycle has significant variables. Institutional participation is unprecedented, with Bitcoin ETFs providing sustained and stable buying, which was absent in previous cycles. Corporate balance sheet adoption also creates long-term holding demand rather than purely speculative buying. These structural changes could alter the traditional four-year cycle logic, potentially prolonging the bull market or weakening the bear market. Tom Lee’s $250,000 forecast is based on the assumption that “this cycle is different from previous ones.”

Market sentiment toward this forecast is divided. Data from online prediction markets shows only a 10% probability of Bitcoin reaching $250,000 in 2026. This low probability reflects market respect for the four-year cycle pattern and caution at current high levels. If Bitcoin experiences a strong rebound by the end of 2025, surpassing $120,000 and reaching new highs, this probability could increase significantly. Conversely, if it breaks key support levels and confirms a bear market, the $250,000 prediction will become unrealistic.

Institutions vs. Cycles: Who Will Lead Bitcoin’s 2026 Trend

The current market presents a contest between institutional demand and cycle regularity. Proponents of the $250,000 forecast believe that institutionalization will fundamentally change Bitcoin’s cycle characteristics. Past surges and crashes were driven by retail sentiment and high leverage speculation; now, institutional long-term allocations and ETF continuous buying will smooth volatility, leading Bitcoin into a more stable upward channel. If the U.S. government truly establishes a strategic reserve, it will provide an unprecedented demand anchor.

Skeptics insist that cycle patterns cannot be violated. They point out that even with increased institutional participation, market greed and fear cycles still exist. When prices reach extreme highs, profit-taking pressure will eventually outweigh new buying. Currently, Bitcoin has been over 18 months into the post-halving cycle, and historically, this point often marks a cycle high. The recent 30% correction from $108,000 to $70,000 could be a sign of the start of a bear market.

For investors, the key is the time horizon. If holding for more than four years, covering the entire cycle, whether Bitcoin reaches $250,000 in 2026 is less important; the long-term upward trend remains valid. But if expecting to see $250,000 in 2026 for short-term positioning, one must accept the significant risk of cycle reversal. Wall Street analysts’ forecasts offer an optimistic scenario, but the warnings from historical cycles should not be ignored. A prudent strategy is to allocate gradually rather than concentrate at a single point.