Grayscale points out that the “four-year cycle” has ended, and institutional funds along with the regulatory benefits of the Trump administration will drive Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high in the first half of 2026.
(Background: a16z: Top 17 Potential Trends in Cryptocurrency in 2026)
(Additional context: SEC new chair Paul Atkins calls for “Prioritizing Cryptocurrency in 2026”: The best is yet to come)

Table of Contents

• Four-year curse fails, ETFs become shock absorbers
• Trump administration gives the green light on regulation
• 2026 Investment Map: Focus on real-world applications
• Macro hedging demand supports, noise still exists

As Wall Street flips the calendar to the last page of 2025, Bitcoin’s price remains at $85,866. Although it has fallen about 32% from the November high, Grayscale Asset Management’s annual report issued on the 15th clearly states: this is not a bear market, but a new phase of a bull market.

( Four-year curse fails, ETFs become shock absorbers

In the past, the rhythm of halvings and retail investor sentiment jointly shaped the “four-year cycle”; prices often surged after supply reductions, followed by long-term corrections. Grayscale pointed out in its 2026 Digital Asset Outlook that this formula has been broken by institutional capital. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs by giants like BlackRock and Fidelity has turned passive buying into a shock absorber that absorbs volatility. By Q3 2025, the total assets under management in US spot ETFs surpassed $191 billion, resulting in shallower and shorter deep corrections. The report emphasizes that market momentum is shifting from “retail frenzy” to “asset allocation needs”:

As long as the risk of fiat currency depreciation continues to rise, we believe the demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum in portfolios may also continue to grow.

) Trump administration gives the green light on regulation

If institutional funds are the fuel, then Washington’s new policies are the ignition. After the Republicans returned to the White House, Congress passed the stablecoin framework “GENIUS Act,” and the enforcement actions of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have noticeably slowed down. Grayscale expects that in 2026, both parties will once again work together to pass comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation, removing legal uncertainties for large-scale participation of traditional financial institutions. For fund managers handling trillions of dollars, regulatory certainty is more important than technological innovation.

2026 Investment Map: Focus on real-world applications

Looking toward 2026, Grayscale recommends investors shift focus from short-term speculation to application layers. Stablecoins are evolving from exchange-held assets to essential tools for cross-border payments and corporate balance sheets; asset tokenization has moved beyond trial phases toward commercialization inflection points. Conversely, “quantum computing” and “digital asset treasury bills” are categorized as noise unlikely to impact prices within a year. The report concludes: under the dual forces of the Trump administration clearing regulatory hurdles and Wall Street integrating Bitcoin into standard allocations, this institutional-led bull run may be more stable and possibly longer.

Macro hedging demand supports, noise still exists

Aside from regulatory benefits, the declining purchasing power of the US dollar is also a fundamental driver of demand. The continuous rise in US public debt and the persistent shadow of inflation have led investors to increasingly view Bitcoin as “sovereign credit hedge.” Grayscale’s analysis indicates that as long as the risk premium of fiat currency depreciation exists, allocations to Bitcoin and Ethereum will not exit portfolios. However, Ecoinometrics warns that recent ETF flows have become neutral, with institutional demand slightly weakening; at the same time, the Federal Reserve’s estimated room to cut interest rates in 2026 is limited to 3.375%, and market liquidity will not revisit the massive flooding seen in 2020. These factors remind investors that, although the upward trend is supported, volatility remains inevitable.

Bitcoin is moving from a fringe asset to the mainstream. The process hasn’t been smooth, but the driving engine has been upgraded — from supply shocks occurring every four years to continuous capital inflows. Over the next six months, the market will test Grayscale’s prediction: whether new highs are truly just around the corner.