Gate Research Institute: BTC Short-term Holdings Continue to Face Pressure | Stablecoin Settlement Enters Banking System

Cryptocurrency Market Overview

• BTC (+2.05% | Current price 87,572 USDT): After a rapid decline, BTC found support above $85,000 and is now consolidating around $87,500. In terms of moving averages, MA5 and MA10 are gradually flattening and approaching the price, while MA30 remains in a downtrend, indicating a short-term rebound and correction phase, but medium-term resistance has not yet been fully resolved. The MACD green bars are clearly converging, with the fast and slow lines rising from low levels. Bullish momentum is recovering but has not yet formed a strong reversal. If BTC can effectively hold above the $87,000–$87,500 range, it may further test the resistance at $88,500–$89,000; if it falls below $86,500 again, the rebound structure could be broken, and the market may revert to a sideways and weak pattern.
• ETH (+0.46% | Current price 2,958 USDT): After a sharp drop, ETH stabilized near $2,880 and is now rebounding within the $2,950–$2,960 range. Regarding moving averages, short-term MA5 and MA10 are beginning to turn upward but are still constrained by MA30, remaining in a weak rebound and correction phase. The MACD green bars are shrinking, indicating a significant decline in bearish momentum. The fast and slow lines show signs of forming a golden cross but confirmation requires more time. If ETH can stay above $2,940, it may continue to recover toward the $3,000 mark; if it drops below $2,920, it could revisit previous lows.
• Altcoins: The fear index has fallen back to 16, still in the “extreme fear” zone. Despite slight fluctuations compared to yesterday, overall sentiment has not significantly improved, and market risk appetite remains low with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.
• Macro: On December 16, the S&P 500 index fell 0.24% to 6,800.26 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.62% to 48,114.26 points; the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.23% to 23,111.46 points. As of 10:15 AM UTC+8 on December 17, spot gold is temporarily priced at $4,321 per ounce, with a 24H increase of 0.45%.

Hot Tokens in the Market

( PTB Portal To Bitcoin (+86.81%, Market Cap $10.31 million)

According to Gate data, PTB token is currently priced at $0.006150, up approximately 86.81% in 24 hours. PTB (Portal To Bitcoin) is a cross-chain and application layer project built around the Bitcoin ecosystem, aiming to connect Bitcoin with other public chain ecosystems through the Portal architecture, enhancing BTC’s scalability in DeFi, application layers, and asset circulation.

Recently, the project has released multiple signals, including upcoming Portal developer updates and public Space events related to the Bitcoin ecosystem, continuously increasing market attention on the project’s technological progress and ecosystem positioning. The recent price surge is mainly driven by a combination of “strengthening Bitcoin institutional narrative + rising project expectations + low circulating supply and capital game.” On one hand, discussions around Bitcoin’s financialization and accelerated bank product deployment have increased, reinforcing the “Bitcoin native application expansion” imagination space promoted by Portal. On the other hand, the upcoming official development updates create expectations that stimulate speculative capital to pre-position.

LIGHT Bitlight Labs (+27.01%, Market Cap $67.16 million)

According to Gate data, LIGHT is currently priced at $1.5733, up 27.01% in 24 hours. Bitlight Labs focuses on infrastructure projects within the Bitcoin ecosystem, mainly integrating the RGB protocol with the Lightning Network to promote Bitcoin from a simple value transfer tool to a programmable asset and multi-layer application platform. Its product matrix includes Bitlight Wallet, Lightning RGB tools, and testing frameworks, aiming to enable more efficient asset issuance, transfer, and payment experiences without compromising Bitcoin security.

Recently, the project disclosed testing plans for Lightning RGB and synchronized wallet updates, continuously signaling ongoing technical progress. Overall, LIGHT’s recent rise is driven by a combination of “Bitcoin ecosystem narrative strengthening + technical route expectations + market sentiment resonance.” The RGB and Lightning combination taps into the long-term imagination of Bitcoin application layer expansion, giving Bitlight a clear technical label among BTC ecosystem projects. Additionally, the concentrated release of maintenance announcements, testing plans, and research content reinforces phased progress expectations, attracting early capital deployment.

ARC AI Rig Complex (+16.98%, Market Cap $47.96 million)

According to Gate data, ARC is currently priced at $0.04779, up approximately 16.98% in 24 hours. AI Rig Complex is built around the “Rig,” a Rust-native AI Agent framework, focusing on providing developers with high-performance, composable, and engineering-oriented AI Agent development tools. Rig is based on Rust, emphasizing safety, execution efficiency, and modular design, suitable for building AI Agents with tool invocation, recursive reasoning, and complex task orchestration.

Recently, core developers have clarified plans to advance systematic documentation and books based on Rig, while the ecosystem project Ryzome has demonstrated the plug-and-play capability of Rig-based web content, further strengthening ARC’s technical label as “developer-friendly AI Agent infrastructure.” The recent price increase is mainly driven by “developer narrative strengthening + AI Agent track revival + small- and medium-capital funds game.” As market focus shifts from single AI applications back to the Agent framework and underlying tools, Rig’s Rust × AI Agents route has gained strong recognition in the tech community. Although the project has released frequent updates, there is no clear commercial data or large-scale user growth validation, so the price is more driven by expectations and sentiment.

Alpha Analysis

BTC short-term holdings remain under pressure, with chips accelerating towards long-term conviction

According to CryptoQuant data, short-term holders are still in significant loss, with the loss cycle lengthening, indicating the market is experiencing a typical “weak hands clearing out” phase. With prices unable to rebound effectively over a long period, some low-risk, short-cycle funds are choosing to cut losses and exit, maintaining short-term selling pressure and limiting the formation of a strong upward structure in the short term.

From the on-chain supply structure, the reduction in short-term holdings corresponds to the gradual absorption by long-term or high-conviction holders. Chips are concentrating in addresses with lower costs and longer holding periods, indicating an improving supply structure and diminishing marginal selling pressure. Historical experience shows that such redistribution often occurs during market bottoms or medium-term corrections, and while short-term volatility may persist, the medium- and long-term structure is laying the groundwork for subsequent trend recovery.

Stablecoin expansion slows, on-chain liquidity marginally cooling

Recent data shows that the overall stablecoin supply continues to grow, but the rolling 12-month growth rate has declined after peaking in late October. The slowdown reflects a weakening in stablecoin inflows, aligning with reduced activity of new funds entering the crypto market. Compared to the rapid expansion phase earlier, the current state is closer to “scale continues to accumulate, marginal growth diminishes,” weakening short-term price and risk appetite support.

In conjunction with recent market corrections, liquidity changes are more likely related to cautious macro expectations. As risk pricing stabilizes, the willingness of new funds to enter the crypto market declines, and the issuance and on-chain deposit speed of stablecoins slow down accordingly. This suggests that even if absolute inflow scales remain sizable, the overall liquidity environment may no longer be as loose as before, and market reliance on upward momentum is gradually shifting from fresh capital to existing holdings.

USDC settlement integration with Solana, stablecoin clearing enters banking system

Visa announced that some banks can now use the Solana blockchain to settle transactions with USDC issued by Circle, marking the first substantial implementation of stablecoin settlement services within the US banking system. The initial participating institutions include Cross River Bank and Lead Bank, with settlement processes directly based on public chains, significantly reducing settlement times and cross-institution transfer costs, providing a new technological pathway for interbank funds settlement.

From an industry perspective, this move not only expands the application boundary of stablecoins within traditional finance but also accelerates collaboration between Visa and Circle on on-chain payment infrastructure. As regulatory environments become more permissive, the joint development of the Arc chain by both parties is expected to accelerate, paving the way for larger-scale institutional applications. Data shows that by the end of November, the annualized settlement volume of Visa-related stablecoin services had reached $3.5 billion, reflecting that stablecoins are gradually shifting from crypto-native tools to important financial channels with actual payment and settlement functions.
References:

• Gate, [https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT]###https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT(
• Farside Investors, [https://farside.co.uk/btc/])https://farside.co.uk/btc/(
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• Bloomberg, [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-16/visa-offers-stablecoin-settlement-for-us-banks-using-circle-s-usdc])https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-16/visa-offers-stablecoin-settlement-for-us-banks-using-circle-s-usdc(

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