Gate Research Institute: Mainstream assets experience structural rebound | BTC short-term holdings remain under pressure

Cryptocurrency Asset Panorama

BTC (+2.05% | Current price 87,572 USDT)

After a rapid decline, BTC found support above $85,000 and is now consolidating around $87,500. In terms of moving averages, MA5 and MA10 are gradually flattening and approaching the price, while MA30 remains downward, indicating a short-term rebound and correction phase but medium-term resistance has not been fully resolved. The MACD green bars are clearly converging, with the fast and slow lines rising from low levels. Bullish momentum is recovering but has not yet formed a strong reversal. If BTC can effectively hold above the $87,000–$87,500 range, it may further test the resistance at $88,500–$89,000; if it falls below $86,500 again, the rebound structure could be broken, and the market may revert to a sideways and weak pattern.

ETH (+0.46% | Current price 2,958 USDT)

ETH halted its decline near $2,880 and is now rebounding to trade between $2,950 and $2,960. Regarding moving averages, the short-term MA5 and MA10 have started to turn upward but are still constrained by MA30, remaining in a weak rebound and correction phase. The MACD green bars are shrinking, indicating a significant decline in bearish momentum. The fast and slow lines show signs of forming a golden cross but confirmation requires more time. If ETH can stay above $2,940, it may continue to recover toward the $3,000 mark in the short term; if it drops below $2,920, it could revisit previous lows.

GT (+2.26% | Current price 10.36 USDT)

GT rebounded to around $10.40 after a sharp decline and is now maintaining sideways consolidation at a high level. The moving average structure shows MA5 and MA10 have re-crossed and are close to the price, while MA30 remains slightly downward, but its resistance is weakening. Overall, the pattern is a consolidation and correction. The MACD red bars are gradually enlarging, with the fast and slow lines trending upward. Bullish momentum is gradually recovering but has not yet accelerated. If GT can hold within the $10.30–$10.40 range, it may test the previous high at $10.55–$10.60; if it falls below $10.20, the trend could shift to sideways consolidation.

Daily Gainers and Losers Tokens

In the past 24 hours, market sentiment remains cautious, but market performance shows signs of divergence and correction. From capital distribution, mainstream assets are generally strong, with BTC recording a mild rebound of about 1.4%, continuing to serve as a stability anchor; XRP performed relatively well, gaining over 2%, and SOL also saw slight gains, indicating that capital is selectively reallocating among some mainstream and highly liquid assets. Overall, although a full risk-on sentiment has not yet been established, rotation and marginal recovery within major assets have begun to appear, and market sentiment has improved from previous lows.

PTB Portal To Bitcoin (+86.81%, Circulating market cap $10.31 million)

According to Gate data, PTB token is currently priced at $0.006150, up approximately 86.81% in 24 hours. PTB (Portal To Bitcoin) is a cross-chain and application layer narrative project built around the Bitcoin ecosystem. Its core goal is to connect Bitcoin with other public chain ecosystems through the Portal architecture, enhancing BTC’s scalability in DeFi, application layers, and asset circulation. Recently, the project has released multiple signals, including upcoming Portal developer updates and public Space events related to the Bitcoin ecosystem, continuously increasing market attention on its technological progress and ecological positioning. The recent rally is mainly driven by a combination of “strengthening Bitcoin institutional narrative + rising project expectations + low circulating supply capital game.” On one hand, discussions around Bitcoin’s financialization and accelerated bank product deployment have increased, expanding the imagination space for “Bitcoin native application expansion” promoted by Portal. On the other hand, the upcoming official development updates create expectations that stimulate speculative capital to pre-position.

LIGHT Bitlight Labs (+27.01%, Circulating market cap $67.16 million)

According to Gate data, LIGHT is currently priced at $1.5733, up 27.01% in 24 hours. Bitlight Labs focuses on Bitcoin ecosystem infrastructure, aiming to combine the RGB protocol with Lightning Network to promote Bitcoin from a simple value transfer tool to a programmable asset and multi-layer application platform. Its product matrix includes Bitlight Wallet, Lightning RGB tools, and testing frameworks, with the goal of enabling more efficient asset issuance, transfer, and payment experiences without compromising Bitcoin security. Recently, the project disclosed testing plans for Lightning RGB and maintained/upgraded wallet versions, continuously signaling ongoing technical development. Overall, LIGHT’s recent rise is driven by “strengthening Bitcoin ecosystem narrative + technical route expectations + market sentiment resonance.” The RGB and Lightning combination taps into the long-term imagination for Bitcoin application layer expansion, giving Bitlight a clear technical identity among BTC ecosystem projects. Additionally, the release of maintenance notices, testing plans, and research content has reinforced phased progress expectations, attracting early capital deployment.

ARC AI Rig Complex (+16.98%, Circulating market cap $47.96 million)

According to Gate data, ARC is currently priced at $0.04779, up approximately 16.98% in 24 hours. AI Rig Complex is built around the “Rig,” a Rust-native AI Agent framework. Its core focus is to provide developers with high-performance, composable, and engineering-oriented AI Agent development tools. Rig is based on Rust, emphasizing security, execution efficiency, and modular design, suitable for building AI Agents with tool invocation, recursive reasoning, and complex task orchestration capabilities. Recently, core developers have announced plans to advance systematic documentation and books based on Rig, while the ecosystem project Ryzome has demonstrated plug-and-play web content capabilities based on Rig, further strengthening ARC’s “developer-friendly AI infrastructure” label. The recent strength of ARC is mainly driven by “developer narrative reinforcement + AI Agent track enthusiasm revival + small- and medium-capital game.” As market focus shifts from single AI applications back to Agent frameworks and underlying tools, Rig’s Rust × AI Agents route has gained recognition in the tech community for its distinctiveness. Meanwhile, the project’s recent information releases are dense but lack clear commercialization data or large-scale user growth validation, with price movements primarily driven by expectations and sentiment.

Hotspot Analysis

BTC short-term holdings remain under pressure, chips rapidly shifting toward long-term conviction

According to CryptoQuant data, short-term holders are still in significant loss, with loss cycles lengthening, indicating the market is experiencing a typical “weak hands clearing out” phase. Amid prolonged ineffective rebounds, some low-risk, short-term trading funds are choosing to cut losses and exit, maintaining short-term selling pressure and limiting the formation of a strong upward structure in the short term.

From the on-chain supply structure, the reduction in short-term holdings corresponds to the gradual absorption by long-term or high-conviction holders. Chips are concentrating in addresses with lower costs and longer holding periods, implying an improving supply structure and diminishing marginal selling pressure. Historical experience shows that such redistribution often occurs during market bottoms or mid-term corrections, although short-term volatility may persist. The medium- and long-term structure is gradually setting the stage for trend recovery.

Stablecoin expansion slows, on-chain liquidity marginally cooling

Recent data shows that the overall supply of stablecoins continues to grow, but the rolling 12-month growth rate has declined after peaking in late October. The slowdown reflects a weakening in stablecoin inflows, aligned with reduced activity of new funds entering the crypto market. Compared to the rapid expansion phase earlier, the current state is closer to “scale continues to accumulate, marginal growth momentum diminishes,” significantly weakening short-term price and risk appetite support.

In conjunction with recent market corrections, liquidity changes are more likely related to overall macroeconomic cautiousness. As risk pricing stabilizes, the willingness of new funds to enter the crypto market declines, and stablecoin issuance and on-chain deposits slow down accordingly. This suggests that even if absolute inflow volumes remain sizable, the overall liquidity environment is less loose than before, and market reliance on upward momentum is gradually shifting from fresh capital to existing holdings.

USDC settlement integration with Solana, stablecoin clearing enters banking system

Visa announced that some banks can now use Circle-issued USDC on the Solana blockchain for transaction clearing, marking the first substantial implementation of stablecoin settlement services within the US banking system. The initial participating institutions include Cross River Bank and Lead Bank, with settlement processes directly based on public chains, significantly reducing settlement times and cross-institution transfer costs, providing a new technological pathway for interbank fund settlement.

From an industry perspective, this move not only expands the application scope of stablecoins within traditional finance but also accelerates collaboration between Visa and Circle on on-chain payment infrastructure. As regulatory environments become more permissive, the joint development of the Arc chain is expected to accelerate, paving the way for larger-scale institutional applications. Data shows that by the end of November, the annualized settlement volume of Visa-related stablecoin services had reached $3.5 billion, reflecting that stablecoins are gradually shifting from native crypto tools to important financial channels with actual payment and settlement functions.
References:

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/btc/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/eth/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data
• Investing, https://investing.com/indices/usa-indices
• Investing, https://investing.com/currencies/xau-usd
• CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/cryptocurrency-heatmap
• X, https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/2000785712140960065?s=20
• Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-16/visa-offers-stablecoin-settlement-for-us-banks-using-circle-s-usdc

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